Filed under: Major Movement , Competitive Strategy , Barrick Gold (ABX) , Commodities , Federal Reserve Back in the late 1970s, the Hunt brothers from Texas tried to corner the silver market . That drove prices to $48 an ounce. Now, 31 years later, silver is shooting higher again. The March silver futures contract closed at $32.296 per ounce , up 72 cents. Since gold is expensive, investors are turning to silver to hedge against inflation. Many fear that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control the spike in commodity prices. The Fed is buying $600 billion of treasuries and keeping interest rates near zero. Continue reading Silver Near a 31-Year High Silver Near a 31-Year High originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 19 Feb 2011 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments
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Gold, oil & 44 Bars per Minute
“Girls love to spin.” — Wayne, Dance Instructor, Howard County Parks and Rec. I’m taking dance classes at the local Parks & Rec. with a stunning brunette, which is why I’m shuffling my feet around on Sunday nights at eight. The crowd is mixed; twenty-something hipster couples and old guys who have difficulty with their gig lines. The instructor is a cross between Wayne Newton and Telly Savalas: a black silk shirt, shaved head, and a nose like an organic potato. He sucks his microphone like a lollipop and spits out a steady stream of advice: “One, two, hook the toe, slide back, twirl…” Chick magnet The chicks love him, of course. And heck, I was even having a good time�— right up until Wayne Savalas swished over during the break. My H1 was in the parking lot. It’s shiny, yellow, and chews diesel like a Mongolian wrestler at a yak roast. Wayne obviously saw me pull up and feels he should enlighten me about his new Chevy Volt getting 60 miles per gallon… And why would I drive something that sucks up so much gas and destroys the environment? I told him that I was fully invested in oil explorers. And with the trouble in the Middle East launching my shares, I could drive a Semi for life… Brent Crude ETF (BNO) Yes, he said, but is this more of a trade on the Arab revolutions, or does it have more to do with the destruction of the dollar? Wayne pointed out that the dollar/euro has hit a four-month low and seems to be heading lower. Down she goes What is most concerning is that during this particular period of global uncertainty, the
Market Week Wrap-up
– Leading global equity indices continued floating upwards this week while the inflation drumbeat just kept getting louder. In the US, the January y/y CPI figure hit +1.6%, its highest level since last spring, and some analysts were alarmed by higher food prices creeping into CPI data sooner than expected. China’s January CPI report was lower than expected at +4.9% y/y, but markets panned the figures as heavily massaged by basket revisions. In the UK, the BoE said CPI would likely continue growing at a 4-5% clip over the short term. The World Bank released a report indicating that food prices were up 15% since October 2010 and are now only 3% away from record highs hit in 2008. Commodities moves complicated the story somewhat. While silver has pushed out to 30-year highs, there were signs that inflated soft commodity prices were beginning to unwind, with cotton and grain prices both below recent highs. Crude and gold prices have been impacted by reports that Iran is sending warships through the Suez Canal and bloody protests in Bahrain (next door to Saudi Arabia), although WTI futures were well below recent highs seen in early February. The Obama Administration unveiled its $3.73T budget proposal for 2012, including an all-time high deficit of $1.65T, reflecting the tax-cut agreement reached with Republicans in December. For 2012, the administration sees the imbalance declining to $1.1T, giving the country a record four straight years of one trillion-plus deficits. Bond prices held steady after the details were released, and Congress sharpened its knives for a budget fight. The Feb Empire Manufacturing survey hit its highest level since last June, indicating that the US manufacturing expansion seen over the last several months is continuing. On Friday there was plenty of commentary out of the G20 conference, where leaders tried mightily to achieve some concrete steps in reforming the global monetary system. Fed Chairman Bernanke took a swipe at the Chinese in his policy address to the G20, warning that nations which keep currency values low create imbalances, while the PBoC’s Zhou continued to push for a higher profile for the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). For the week, the DJIA rose 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9% and the S&P500 was up 1.0%. – John Deere crushed earnings and revenue targets in its Q1 report and nearly doubled its guidance for FY11 equipment sales. The firm hiked its sales guidance for its key agriculture and construction units as well, and said its Q2 revenue would blow out consensus estimates. Later in the week Caterpillar released very favorable dealer metrics for the month of January, with North America machinery sales up a whopping 58% y/y in the month. – Iron ore miner Cliffs Natural Resources reported very strong Q4 profits on a big y/y gain in iron ore pricing. The company expects global steel production to continue to grow in 2011, although it warned that spot iron ore prices are unsustainably high. Reliance Steel also blew out earnings estimates, and said pricing would remain strong at least through the first quarter of 2011. – In tech, Dell’s profit was way ahead of the consensus in its Q4 report, thanks to a big improvement in margins. The company said it believes the corporate IT…
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish flag broken, Euro could continue the bullish run
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish flag broken, Euro could continue the bullish run to 1.3860 or higher The EURUSD slipped below 1.3500 this week, but found a good support around 1.3420 area before bounced significantly higher and hit 1.3714 on Friday. As you can see on my daily chart below, the bullish flag is broken out to the upside, suggests potential bullish continuation scenario which started from 1.2873. This fact not only open the door for further bullish run testing 1.3800 – 1.3860 key resistance area, but could create a bigger bullish scenario testing 1.4200 – 1.4300. Immediate support is seen around 1.3650 followed by 1.3550. A break below 1.3550 could cancel the bullish flag upside scenario re-testing 1.3420 key support level. Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.
FedEx (FDX): Still Set to Deliver?
Filed under: Newsletters , FedEx Corp (FDX) , Stocks to Buy “It’s not too often that a company lowers its guidance and the stock rises, but such is the case with FedEx ( FDX ),” says Geoffrey Seiler . The editor of BullMarket .com explains, “The company cut its fiscal Q3 guidance; but given the terrible weather, which impacted a number of airports across the U.S. and Europe, and higher fuel costs, it was largely expected. “The package delivery firm now expects to produce adjusted EPS of 70-90 cents, down from prior guidance of 95 cents to $1.15. Analysts were expecting EPS of $1.04 for the quarter. Continue reading FedEx (FDX): Still Set to Deliver? FedEx (FDX): Still Set to Deliver? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Feb 2011 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments
Inflation in (Mostly) the Wrong Places
It is often claimed that inflation is a benign, even positive, force. People assume that prices, wages, and assets will all rise together… In the real world, inflationary episodes don’t play out that way. Wages don’t keep up, and bubbles form in unexpected (and unwanted) places. In America, compensation is clearly stagnant. And the outlook for future pay raises is not good, as this chart from David Rosenberg shows: Contrast that with this next chart, which shows the percentage of companies planning to raise prices: Combine stagnant wages and slow growth with high unemployment and rising prices, and you get a recipe for stagflation. This scenario is being played out around the world. In the UK, consumer prices rose 4% in 2010. As noted by the Financial Times , wages aren’t keeping up: The prices of everyday goods and services are rising about twice as rapidly as average wages, Tuesday’s inflation figures confirmed — which means that the standard of living of many Britons is already falling. According to the Bank of England, average pay at the end of this year will be able to buy no more than it could in 2005. It is the first time that the purchasing power of earnings has fallen so far since the 1920s. I expect this trend to continue as long as the Fed’s mad experiment is ongoing. The thing about Central Bank “easing” is you never know where inflation will pop up… Easy money will always fuel speculators, who have little skin in the game, to find another bubble to “invest” in. Silver, gold, oil With printing presses switched “on” for the foreseeable future, we remain bullish on precious metals. Silver is holding above $30 today and could hit $37.50 on the next leg up. Coal, oil, and natural gas investments should continue to do well. And as my colleague Nick Hodge of Energy and Capital says, “Buy it if it burns.” If you’re not yet convinced that Fed printing is directly related to rising commodity prices, examine the following chart. (The solid blue line represents the Austrian Money Supply (AMS), and the solid teal line represents commodity prices ( IMF Commodity Index )): Note: The version of money supply shown
Commodity ‘Boom’ Boosts Rio Tinto (RIO)
Filed under: International Markets , Newsletters , Rio Tinto plc ADS (RTP) , Commodities , Stocks to Sell “London-based Rio Tinto ( RIO ) is one of the largest and most diversified mining companies in the world; ith the potential to reward shareholders with increased dividends and share buybacks, Rio is a buy for investors seeking exposure to booming commodity markets,” says Paul Tracy . The editor of High Yield International explains, “Rio’s operations are located in Australia, North and South America, South Africa, Europe and Indonesia. Its strategy is to concentrate on the development of large, high quality mineral deposits and become a low-cost producer for each commodity. Continue reading Commodity ‘Boom’ Boosts Rio Tinto (RIO) Commodity ‘Boom’ Boosts Rio Tinto (RIO) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 11 Feb 2011 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments
Load up on Food ETFs…
It’s time to load up on more food ETFs, like the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO). The USDA just reported even more inventory cuts for agriculture commodities, including corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar and rice. Couple that with last week’s Food and Agriculture (FAO) of the UN Food Index report, and food-related ETFs are likely to rocket even more, according to Briefing.com. Just last week, the FAO reported that the food price index nailed new all-time highs for January. According to Briefing.com, “ The Index rose 3.4% from December, averaging 231 points in January. This is the highest level (both in real and nominal terms) since FAO started measuring food prices in 1990. Overall, prices of all monitored commodity groups registered strong gains in January, except for meat, which remained unchanged.” Even better… “Unusual weather in 2010 hit many areas of the world, including Russia, the U.S. and many parts of Europe, which has cut inventory levels in many agriculture commodities around the world to multi-year lows. Overall, many commodities have seen notable inventory reductions including corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, sugar, rice and coffee. Palm oil and cooking oil inventories have also fallen notably. Overall, there are both supply and demand factors driving
A Self-Employed Carpenter’s Thoughts on the Future
The world is changing. Currently, as a nation, we have a large and well-trained section of our work force dedicated to residential construction. Unemployment within the construction industry now exceeds 20%. That number takes into account only workers getting unemployment compensation. There are also many self-employed individuals, ineligible for unemployment compensation, who have simply run out of customers and work. That is the bad news. Now the worse news: Not only are those jobs not coming back, but the construction industry will continue to diminish for the foreseeable future. The real estate glut is not on hold; it is over. Waiting for its return is similar to waiting for next the big surge in typewriters, 35mm cameras, and home phones. Why are the construction jobs not coming back? There are three main reasons, the first of which is inflation. Decades of credit expansion and the recent printing of money (quantitative easing) have increased the overall volume of our fiat currency: dollars. Therefore, the value of each dollar unit has been reduced, causing prices to rise. This results in increased costs in construction of new homes. Higher new construction costs make staying in and repairing older structures, or renting, more attractive. The second reason is fuel costs. Living rurally and working in urban areas is becoming very expensive. Reasons one and two will keep an increasing number of younger workers and couples living and renting closer to work. Why take the financial and mobility risks associated with homeownership? The third reason is we are broke. Who are “we”? Western civilization, comprised mainly of the U.S. and Europe. Consider this…there are gold and silver coins and bullion: actual wealth storage vehicles. There are paper dollars: temporary wealth storage vehicles. And there are also trillions of “dollars” represented as pixels on screens in accounting software programs. When I say that we are broke it is because I don’t believe those pixel dollars represent anything. All of the wealth supposedly held in those pixels does not exist. It is a classic Ponzi scheme. If you go today and convert your pixels to actual dollars, everything is just fine. But if 10% of us go today and try to convert our pixels into dollars, the banks will shut down…Why? Because the money doesn’t exist. There is no actual wealth stored in any of those pixels. Spain and Portugal may require financial bailouts in 2011. Part of the fallout from the Greek financial crisis last year was the creation of a eurozone bailout fund of $1.01 trillion. That fund could be used to assist Spain and Portugal if necessary. Where did that $1.01 trillion come from? Was it removed from another sector of Europe’s economy? Supplied in gold bullion to EU headquarters in The Hague? Removed from the savings accounts of earnest Europeans? No, none of those could supply …
The Metal People are Dying For
Maybe the weak are simply being weeded from the gene pool so the strong may survive… This theory might help explain why people keep electrocuting themselves to death, cutting into live power lines to extract copper. Stories of deaths related to copper thefts have been all over the news: Last summer, a 42-year-old Appalachian man died while trying to steal copper from a live power line. Charleston Daily Mail reported “American Electric Power says copper thieves are becoming increasingly brazen, and their tactics have resulted in four deaths so far this year in the Appalachian service region.” An Illinois man hit a live wire while scrapping for copper last fall and was electrocuted. Police said this is a recent trend, with similar activity in Granite City, Venice, Brooklyn, Washington Park, and Belleville. In October, a couple from Southern California attempted to steal copper from an electrical vault. The man was electrocuted to death; the woman suffered severe burns from attempts to pull the man from the vault when it exploded. And just last month , a man attempted cutting live copper wires with a bolt cutter. He suffered from electric shock and fell 30 feet from his ladder, later dying at a Charlotte hospital. I could go on, but I think you get the point. I guess these people aren’t bright enough to know that rather than risk electrocution, it’s easier to rob someone’s house and …
The WSJ’s Most Controversial Article… Ever
On January 9th, The Wall Street Journal ran an article that would become the most viewed, commented-on editorial in the publication’s history. The article was so controversial that the author — a Yale Law School professor — received several death threats. Thousands of enraged American readers went so far as to accuse her of advocating physical and emotional violence against children… Meet Amy Chua: a petite, 48-year-old Chinese American and the author of the WSJ firestorm piece, “Why Chinese Mothers are Superior”. Obviously, the headline caught my attention. My wife is Chinese and we have three children. But what really surprised me was the viciousness of the comments from readers. But as I perused through the comments of anger, hate, and even threats to Chua, I realized I as was actually reading comments of insecurity, fear, and envy. Think about it… Had this article been written by anybody other than a Chinese professor, it would’ve gone largely unnoticed. Bottom line: Americans fear the Chinese juggernaut. Here are just a few headlines from the past year that have caused panic among Americans and the West: Pentagon Surprised, Concerned as China Debuts High-Tech Weapons — Politics Daily Chinese ‘Carrier-Killer’ Missile Could Reshape Sea Combat — Fox News Chinese ‘carrier-killer’ missile raises concerns of Pacific power shift — Associated Press China Stealth Fighter? Photos Released Online Raise Speculations — Huffington Post China’s First Stealth Fighter Test Successful — CBS News China backs Spain to emerge from crisis: Beijing — Sydney Morning Herald Move Over Europe, China Is Pushing to Bailout the Greek Economy — Washington Post Wow: China to Bail Out Europe? — Daily Mail UK China’s Pres. Hu calls dollar’s preeminence ‘thing of the past’ — Wall Street Journal President Hu provoking the US by suggesting yuan replace dollar as reserve currency — AsiaNews.it And now Americans are fearful of the Chinese mother, as reported by Time Magazine: “Tiger Mom: Amy Chua Parenting Memoir Raises American Fears.” I hear it every day… “China is going to overtake the U.S. economy… We need to catch up before they flood our markets with electric cars, wind turbines, and …
