Filed under: Major Movement , Competitive Strategy , Barrick Gold (ABX) , Commodities , Federal Reserve Back in the late 1970s, the Hunt brothers from Texas tried to corner the silver market . That drove prices to $48 an ounce. Now, 31 years later, silver is shooting higher again. The March silver futures contract closed at $32.296 per ounce , up 72 cents. Since gold is expensive, investors are turning to silver to hedge against inflation. Many fear that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control the spike in commodity prices. The Fed is buying $600 billion of treasuries and keeping interest rates near zero. Continue reading Silver Near a 31-Year High Silver Near a 31-Year High originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 19 Feb 2011 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments
Guidance
Market Week Wrap-up
– Leading global equity indices continued floating upwards this week while the inflation drumbeat just kept getting louder. In the US, the January y/y CPI figure hit +1.6%, its highest level since last spring, and some analysts were alarmed by higher food prices creeping into CPI data sooner than expected. China’s January CPI report was lower than expected at +4.9% y/y, but markets panned the figures as heavily massaged by basket revisions. In the UK, the BoE said CPI would likely continue growing at a 4-5% clip over the short term. The World Bank released a report indicating that food prices were up 15% since October 2010 and are now only 3% away from record highs hit in 2008. Commodities moves complicated the story somewhat. While silver has pushed out to 30-year highs, there were signs that inflated soft commodity prices were beginning to unwind, with cotton and grain prices both below recent highs. Crude and gold prices have been impacted by reports that Iran is sending warships through the Suez Canal and bloody protests in Bahrain (next door to Saudi Arabia), although WTI futures were well below recent highs seen in early February. The Obama Administration unveiled its $3.73T budget proposal for 2012, including an all-time high deficit of $1.65T, reflecting the tax-cut agreement reached with Republicans in December. For 2012, the administration sees the imbalance declining to $1.1T, giving the country a record four straight years of one trillion-plus deficits. Bond prices held steady after the details were released, and Congress sharpened its knives for a budget fight. The Feb Empire Manufacturing survey hit its highest level since last June, indicating that the US manufacturing expansion seen over the last several months is continuing. On Friday there was plenty of commentary out of the G20 conference, where leaders tried mightily to achieve some concrete steps in reforming the global monetary system. Fed Chairman Bernanke took a swipe at the Chinese in his policy address to the G20, warning that nations which keep currency values low create imbalances, while the PBoC’s Zhou continued to push for a higher profile for the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). For the week, the DJIA rose 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9% and the S&P500 was up 1.0%. – John Deere crushed earnings and revenue targets in its Q1 report and nearly doubled its guidance for FY11 equipment sales. The firm hiked its sales guidance for its key agriculture and construction units as well, and said its Q2 revenue would blow out consensus estimates. Later in the week Caterpillar released very favorable dealer metrics for the month of January, with North America machinery sales up a whopping 58% y/y in the month. – Iron ore miner Cliffs Natural Resources reported very strong Q4 profits on a big y/y gain in iron ore pricing. The company expects global steel production to continue to grow in 2011, although it warned that spot iron ore prices are unsustainably high. Reliance Steel also blew out earnings estimates, and said pricing would remain strong at least through the first quarter of 2011. – In tech, Dell’s profit was way ahead of the consensus in its Q4 report, thanks to a big improvement in margins. The company said it believes the corporate IT…
Weight Watchers 2011 Forecast Blows Away Expectations; Shares Rocket Higher (WTW)
Weight management specialist Weight Watchers International, Inc. ( WTW ) on Thursday posted better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and provided at 2011 forecast that wowed investing, sending its shares soaring in premarket trading. The New York-based company reported forth quarter net income of $48.9 million, or 66 cents per share, compared with just $18.7 million, or 24 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding items, adjusted profit was 64 cents per share. Revenue jumped almost 15% from last year to $356.7 million. On average, Wall Street analysts expected a smaller profit of 56 cents per share, on lower revenue of $321 million. The company’s real surprise came in its guidance. For 2011, WTW said it expects full-year earnings to range from $3.50 to $3.85 per share, which would absolutely blow away analysts’ view for $2.77 per share. Weight Watchers shares surged $14.88, or +33%, in premarket trading Thursday. The Bottom Line Shares of Weight Watchers ( WTW ) have a 1.56% dividend yield, based on last night’s closing stock price of $44.92. The stock is blowing through all-time high levels of $57-$58 a share this morning. We’ll see if this level of overhead resistance plays a role in the stock as the day progresses. Weight Watchers International, Inc. ( WTW ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.4 out of 5 stars. Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
FedEx (FDX): Still Set to Deliver?
Filed under: Newsletters , FedEx Corp (FDX) , Stocks to Buy “It’s not too often that a company lowers its guidance and the stock rises, but such is the case with FedEx ( FDX ),” says Geoffrey Seiler . The editor of BullMarket .com explains, “The company cut its fiscal Q3 guidance; but given the terrible weather, which impacted a number of airports across the U.S. and Europe, and higher fuel costs, it was largely expected. “The package delivery firm now expects to produce adjusted EPS of 70-90 cents, down from prior guidance of 95 cents to $1.15. Analysts were expecting EPS of $1.04 for the quarter. Continue reading FedEx (FDX): Still Set to Deliver? FedEx (FDX): Still Set to Deliver? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Feb 2011 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments
Tech Expert Eyes QuickLogic (QUIK)
Filed under: Newsletters , Stocks to Buy “QuickLogic ( QUIK ) recently reported fourth quarter revenue slightly below its revised guidance, and forecast that Q1 new product revenue would be down roughly $100K,” notes tech sector specialist Paul McWilliams . In his Next Inning newsletter, he explains, “Both are clearly disappointing pieces of news. However, as I see it, the disappointment ends there, and I continue to own these shares. “The semiconductor company makes products that enable customers to add new features, extend battery life and enhance images on mobile and consumer products. Continue reading Tech Expert Eyes QuickLogic (QUIK) Tech Expert Eyes QuickLogic (QUIK) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Feb 2011 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments
Dolby Laboratories’ (NYSE:DLB) Profits Up 25 Percent YOY
Dolby Laboratories (NYSE:DLB) reported profits in its first quarter rose by 25 percent, citing growth in service revenue and licensing fees. There was also a one-off tax event that helped them. The down side was for fiscal year 2011, Dolby cut their revenue guidance and non-GAAP earnings for the the year, saying the PC market will continue to struggle. GAAP net income for the first quarter
Market Wrap-Up for Feb.3 (EL, NEM, YUM, K, CME, CVS, more)
The markets got off to a negative start today, but within the averages were several names that stood out on the upside, helping push the averages green by the market close. Screaming higher today were shares of Estee Lauder ( EL ) after the cosmetics giant beat estimates on its earnings report and raised guidance significantly. This is a name we have been watching closely and one we will consider on decent pullbacks. Also moving up on earnings-related stories were Ross Stores ( ROST ), Yum Brands ( YUM ), and Kellogg ( K ). On the flipside, earnings results hurt stocks like Ameriprise Financial ( AMP ), CME Group ( CME ), and CVS Caremark ( CVS ). Holding the averages back today a bit are energy plays that are seeing some red following multi-day gains. Newmont Mining ( NEM ) announced an acquisition this morning of Fronteer Gold ( FRG ). I will be watching the mining companies closely to see if this can get gold and sliver out of their recent slump. As I get prepared to do a national radio campaign where I will be interviewed on about 20-25 different national affiliates (I will give readers a heads up whenever I know I will be going on somewhere) regarding my “Be a Dividend Millionaire” book and of course our Dividend.com business, I want to reflect on my initial foray into the media world. About two years ago, I reached out to a local NBC affiliate to talk about what was happening in the economy and it was quite an enlightening experience. I learned some lessons early on about the media biz and business news from a local affiliate standpoint. First of all, I went in cold with no experience or training, and that likely showed my first few times on the air (fortunately no Cindy Brady-style freezing when the on-air light came on). After that, I seemed to find my groove. Unfortunately at the time, the economy was in the dumps and there was little I could do to sugarcoat the situation. Being a tell-it-like-it-is person is not something that broadcasters enjoy, depending on the station and people you deal with. In my case, my segments were focused on avoiding layoffs and when will the economy rebound. I had little in the way I was able to contribute from an investing standpoint (not my call, but the station manager at the time). I also learned about writing your own segments, which is what I had to do. The anchor would literally receive my notes for the first time as I was being seated up at the anchor desk a minute before going on the air. Can you say chaotic? I stopped doing the segments as there was a bit too much demand on what was needed for me to produce the segments, along with being held back from showcasing my investing expertise. I am excited to begin working with a top media/PR person who has worked with some key names in the financial and publishing space. I hope I am able to keep things real during my upcoming media appearances, and won’t be forced…
Darden Optimistic on 2011 – Analyst Blog
Darden raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2011 and initiated third quarter earnings outlook.
Lexmark Profits on Higher Sales – Analyst Blog
Lexmark International Inc. posted decent fourth quarter 2010 earnings per share of $1.29, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11 and its own guidance range of $1.03-$1.13.
Why Paul Krugman Is Wrong on the Austrians
The Austrians on Capital In contrast to mainstream macro models, which either do not possess capital at all or at best denote it as a homogenous stock of size “K,” Austrian theory explicitly treats the capital structure of the economy as a complex assortment of different tools, equipment, machinery, inventories, and other goods in process. Much of the Austrian perspective is dependent on this rich view of the economy’s capital structure, and mainstream economists miss out on many of the Austrian insights when they make the “convenient” assumption that the economy has one good. (Krugman will be glad to know that yes, I can spell all this out in a formal model — and one that referee Paul Samuelson grudgingly signed off on.) Krugman and other Keynesians stress the primacy of demand: they keep pointing out that the owner of an electronics store, say, won’t have the incentive to hire more workers, and buy more inventory, if he doesn’t expect consumers will show up with money to spend on new TVs or laptops. But Austrians point out that demand per se is hardly the whole story: Regardless of how many green pieces of paper the customers have, or how much credit the store can get from the bank, it will be physically impossible for the electronics store to fill the shelves with new TVs and laptops unless the manufacturers of those items have already produced them. And in turn, the manufacturers can’t magically create TVs and laptops merely because the demand for their products picks up; they rely on other sectors in the economy having done the prior preparation as well, such as mining the necessary metals, assembling the proper amount of tractor trailers needed to ship the goods from the factory, and so on. These observations may strike some as trivial, not worthy of the consideration of serious economists. But that’s only because normally, a market economy “spontaneously” solves this tremendous coordination problem through prices and the corresponding signals of profit and loss. If someone had to centrally plan an entire economy from scratch, there would be all sorts of bottlenecks and waste — as actual experience has shown. Without the guidance of market prices, we wouldn’t observe a smoothly functioning economy, where natural resources move down the chain of production — from mining to processing to manufacturing to wholesale to retail — as neatly depicted in macro textbooks. Instead, we would see a chaotic muddle where the various interlocking processes didn’t dovetail. There would be too many hammers and not enough nails, too much perishable food and not enough refrigerated railroad cars to deliver it, and so on. The Austrians on Interest When it comes to explaining the coordinating function of market prices, Austrians assign a very important role to interest rates, for they steer …
