john paulson

Paulson Sees Inflation on the Horizon

Paulson Sees Inflation on the Horizon

Here’s the latest take on the markets from billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson. In it, he makes four calls, three of which I agree with. Seeing inflation on the horizon, he likes gold, and blue chip stocks paying a good dividend yields. Additionally, he also believes bonds are in a bubble. He also is bullish on housing which is where I think he’s off the mark in the short term. No surprise there. Even still, it’s hard to argue with his overall view on inflation. In fact, as I pointed out in this article inflation is about to return to our shores thanks to a devalued dollar and emerging market strength. That being said here’s how Paulson is lining up his portfolio these days…. From the Wall Street Journal by Brett Arends entitled: How to Bet Like John Paulson Hedge fund tycoon John Paulson is the man who made his name, and a fortune, betting against subprime mortgages when no one else even knew what they were. And he’s just made three big financial calls that you need to know about. Speaking to the University Club in New York, he said, first, that gold could go to $2,400 an ounce based on the fundamentals—and that momentum could carry it to $4,000 an ounce. Right now it’s around $1,300. Second, he said you should get out of bonds while you can: You’re much better off investing in blue chip stocks with good dividend yields than bonds. And third, he said you should buy a home. Now. “If you don’t own a home, buy one,” he reportedly said. “If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.” (A spokesman for Mr. Paulson did not challenge the accounts of the meeting.) Among the New York commentariat there’s been a lot of head-scratching about Mr. Paulson’s take—especially this contrarian stance on housing. Is he right? If so, what does he know that everyone else doesn’t? Ignore the critics. The odds have to be on his side. The reason is simple: Inflation. There is a debate raging on Wall Street these days between those warning about deflation and those warning about inflation. We are at, or near, deflation at the moment. It may even get worse before it gets better. But Mr. Paulson sees inflation coming by 2012 or so. Last week, several contrarian money managers I was talking to made the same prediction. The explanation isn’t hard to find. Forget the usual technical issues economists like to talk about, such as output gaps, labor markets, money supply and the like. Put simply: We will get inflation because we have to. It doesn’t get any more straightforward than that. There is only one plausible route out of this appalling situation. The government needs inflation. The country needs inflation. That will shrink these debts in relation to the economy, asset prices and incomes. Deflation would make debts even bigger in real terms. That would be a disaster. We’re skirting it at the moment, but it can’t be allowed to take hold. That’s why Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has just offered more quantitative easing—and if that won’t work he’ll try something…

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John Paulson: Gold Could Hit $4,000

Hedge fund manager and billionaire John Paulson said he sees gold prices moving in a range of $2,400 to $4,000 an ounce, citing double-digit inflation emerging by 2012. Paulson, speaking at New York’s University Club recently, said 80 percent of his assets are held in gold. He added that the coming inflation will result in gold prices being pushed up even more. Paulson also said the inevitable

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Time to Invest in NovaGold (AMEX:NG)?

Novagold (AMEX:NG) has a lot going for it from several angles, including the undeveloped resources they own, partners, and major investors. As far as resources go, especially gold and copper, they hold some of the largest undeveloped deposits among miners. They also enjoy deposits of numerous other metals like silver and zinc. Expectations are the cost to develop the assets will be about $4

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Will Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK), Seabridge Gold (AMEX:SA), NovaGold (AMEX:NG) Be Beneficiaries of China’s Targeting Precious Metals and Gold?

Flush with capital, China has been eyeing mining properties and companies around the world for some time to invest in preparation for meeting their needs long into the future. They recently have increased their scrutiny and commitment, noting the lack of capital available because of weakened credit markets. Consequently, the central bank of China has instructed their banks to offer credit to

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Pair Trade: Long

Pair Trade: Long

Pair Trade: Long GS, Short JPM Fundamental Commentary The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investing banking, trading an principal investments, asset management and securities services. The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals. Yesterday Goldman announced that it had agreed to pay $550 million – the largest penalty ever imposed on an investment bank – to settle civil fraud charges over its incomplete disclosure to investors who lost billions of dollars as a result of collateralized debt obligations. The settlement resolves Goldman of all SEC inquiries into its conduct regarding the CDOs, including the fact that it failed to disclose that hedge fund manager John Paulson was on the short side of the same CDOs that Goldman was selling to its clients. The settlement also agrees that Goldman neither admits nor denies any wrongdoing in the matter. Nonetheless, Goldman has since acknowledged that they made a “mistake” and “regret” the disclosure omission. Analysts reactions to the settlement for the most part have been positive. On CNBC yesterday there were price targets given between $175 and $200. Here’s what Dick Bove had to say on CNBC yesterday: “I think that Goldman Sachs is one of the best companies ever created in the United States. It really understands its businesses and that it operates them properly. And if you believe that money supply over time constatnly goes higher–and money of course is the raw material of thsi company–then you have a company whose …

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NovaGold’s (AMEX:NG) Donlin Creek Getting More Expensive?

Now that NovaGold (AMEX:NG) losses have mounted over the last quarter, they are getting more aggressive in pursuing capital to work on their Donlin Creek project, which is by far their most important mine. They are in a 50/50 partnership with mining giant Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) in the project. Either the costs at the project are increasing, or NovaGold is pushing harder to get it going,

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Weekend Reading and Audio July 10

Filed in Gold Investing, Jim Rogers, john paulson, silver by on July 10, 2010 0 Comments

1. Interview with Rick Rule– Part 1, Part 2 Great interview where Rick discusses his view on oil (hint he thinks its going to $200), gas, and alternative energies.2. Jim Rogers says buy metals and rice–sell bonds.3. John Paulson fac…

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NovaGold Resources (NYSE:NG) Soars on Gold Prices

Although well off its 52-week high of $9.18, NovaGold Resources (NYSE:NG) was among the gold mining leaders on Friday, surging to close at $7.36, a $0.45 gain, or 6.51 percent. NovaGold attained its high at the beginning of May. Hedge fund managers John Paulson and George Soros have both expressed deep interest in the company, investing at least $175 million combined in the gold mining company,

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Book Ideas for Fathers Day Gifts

Filed in economy, Gold Investing, Gold Prices, john paulson by on June 9, 2010 0 Comments

If your father likes to read and likes to invest, here are some popular books you might want to consider giving to him as a gift. Fathers Day is June 20. Liar’s Poker The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It Jim Cramer’s Getting Back to Even Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History No One Would Listen The End of Wall Street The Forever Portfolio: How to Pick Stocks That You Can Hold for the Long Run And finally, if your father is near or at retirement: Retirementology: Rethinking the American Dream in a New Economy If you are still not sure what book your father would like, you can always get him an Amazon (AMZN) gift card .

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John Paulson’s Gold Investments Mixed in 2010

Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) and Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) are all part of the massive gold holdings of hedge fund manager John Paulson, and so far in 2010 they haven’t done a lot to increase the value of the fund, although Anglogold and the SPDR Gold Trust have helped some over the last six months, at least generating gains during that time. Although that is the case so

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NovaGold (AMEX:NG) Attracts Big Players, Money

NovaGold Resources (AMEX:NG) (TSE:NG) President and Chief Executive Officer, Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, seems to have a gift for attracting big players and big money to invest in the company, and that has paid large dividends for them at crucial times of their growth cycle. Some of those investing in NovaGold Resources include billionaire Thomas Kaplan through his Tigris Financial Group, John

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The Housing Bubble Bottom

Filed in Debt, euro, Gold, GOld juniors, Gold Market, john paulson, lead, recession by on May 26, 2010 0 Comments

Like the piss-ants in my kitchen, my pal Charlie is a nuisance that I just can’t seem to shake. A real estate agent by trade, he crawls into my life every time there is even the slightest whiff of good news in the housing market. Much like those bothersome ants, he latches on to any available grain of sugar, no matter how tiny. The result has been a four-year running dialog in which I have squashed him every single time… Advertisement Little-Known “Profit Algorithm” PROVEN The numbers are in – and they prove that huge profits from one specific kind of resource investment can be predicted with startling accuracy… And right now, this “algorithm” points to a historic chance at as much as 57 times your money . Get the proof and details FREE right here . But the truth is that I have to hand it to him… Despite all of these drubbings, Charlie is as persistent as the sunrise. He’s sort of like that ant trying to move the rubber tree plant; he’s got high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes. And he keeps calling me and calling me. He called me this morning delivering a rant that sounded like it came straight from spin zone at the National Association of Realtors. “Steve,” he said, “you’re fighting a losing battle. I hate to break it to you, but the housing bottom has come and gone… ” On and on he went. It was like having Lawrence Yun on line 1. Finally, I just couldn’t take it anymore. “Charlie,” I said, “In case you haven’t figured it out yet, housing is between a rock and a hard place right now.” Here’s why… The Elusive Housing Bubble Bottom The dirty little secret among Realtors like Charlie and mortgage brokers right now is this: all of them lose sleep over the nightmare of higher rates. The reason for this, of course, is pretty simple. In a higher rate environment — say, 6% — it’s game over for housing and they know it. After all, home prices are partly a function of interest rates… This is the one lesson about the housing bubble that should be apparent to everyone by now. Falling rates lead to…

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