natural-gas

Natural Gas Service (NGS): Gas Field Gains

Filed in Bank Gold, commodities, natural-gas, o by on January 19, 2011 0 Comments
Natural Gas Service (NGS): Gas Field Gains

Filed under: Newsletters , Commodities , Oil , Stocks to Buy “I am getting more interested in natural gas; we all realize that crude oil production is peaking and that new discoveries are deep, dangerous to exploit, and bottom line expensive,” says resource expert Curtis Hesler . The editor of Professional Timing Service explains, “Investors can consider Natural Gas Service Group ( NGS ), a natural gas field equipment provider that I am adding to our recommended list. “While technology is improving in wind and hydroelectric generation, perhaps the greatest technical strides are being seen in natural gas production. Continue reading Natural Gas Service (NGS): Gas Field Gains Natural Gas Service (NGS): Gas Field Gains originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Jan 2011 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink  |  Email this  |  Comments

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Watching Paint Dry

Watching Paint Dry

January Crude closes virtually unchanged on the day but as we’ve hinted in recent blogs we think there is more work to be done on the downside. The “whippiness” continues in Natural Gas with prices down 3.7% today. We’ve gone from bullish to bearish back to bullish and prefer the sidelines for clients in this indecisive environment. Though we’ve yet to get a clear signal, some of our more aggressive clients opted to get short the S&P today. We are not advising futures at this juncture, but our suggestion would be purchasing 75-100 point March ES put spreads.  This may be premature, but if prices were to start rolling over, we think a quick 4-6% move lower could be captured. The 20 day MA continues to be the pivot point in the US dollar; in December that level is 79.70. We continue to suggest buying dips in the Euro, Pound and Swissie. Inside day in both Gold and Silver. For the first time in several months, we think the path of least resistance is lower in both precious metals. In February Gold our target remains $1330, and in March Silver $27. The USDA grain stocks report comes out tomorrow before the market open. Here are the average estimates in millions of bushels from one of our more informed floor traders: Corn 803, Wheat 849, and Soybeans 167. We advised most of our clients to lighten up in their profitable Corn positions. We remain bullish, but don’t like carrying trades into potentially market moving reports.  The only real excitement in the softs sector was Lumber moving up limit, or 3.85% today. Nearly a 10% appreciation in the last three sessions. We feel there is more upside, but suggest waiting for a retracement if you are not already long.  Risk Disclosure:

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2011 Stock Market Predictions

2011 Stock Market Predictions

I have no idea what will happen in 2011. None whatsoever… But who would? Main Street has just about given up on Wall Street, withdrawing some $77 billion from mutual funds. We’ve watched as Bernanke lied to us about dollar monetization and inflationary threats… We witnessed the Fed pump billions into the pipelines, the fight over health care, Greece’s implosion, imbecilic actions in D.C., stupidity on trading room floors, unrest in Europe, dollar devaluations… and so much more. And someone is supposed to know what’s coming next? As we say goodbye to 2010, here’s what the smart money seems to be betting on: Commodities will continue to explode. Gold will rally to $1,500. Silver will break $30… again. Copper will nail new highs. And oil could easily run amok above $100 a barrel again. Coal will spike higher. FBR Capital just upped 2011-2012 coal prices by about 9.5% and 5.8%. “Part of our steam-coal price forecast is tied to higher exports and raising our natural-gas price forecast to $5.50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf),” they said. And there’s news of power plant coal shortages in China, which supports higher demand. Buy if you haven’t yet. Rare earth stocks will skyrocket on supply-demand issues. China is increasing tariffs, and there’s no end to low export quotas out of China… Molycorp (MCP), Rare Earth Elements (REE), the Rare Earth ETF (REMX), and our $1.50 Greenland stock will pick up momentum. Buy rare earths now. Housing will not recover — not until 2014 at the earliest. And banks will suffer. Mortgage troubles are rising as prices continue to fall in vulnerable markets; there aren’t enough buyers to pick up the overhang, declines, or coming foreclosures. Even RealtyTrac doesn’t see a recovery until 2014. And don’t forget that mortgage rates will rise again in 2011, dampening any demand and cutting back on affordability. The agflation threat will continue to increase …

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Return to Jekyll Island

Welcome to the Wealth Daily Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Wealth Daily and sister publication articles. In the end, the crooks always return to the scene of the crime. Just days after announcing a $600 billion money drop , the members of the Federal Reserve retreated to the place where it all began: Jekyll Island, Georgia. Only this go-round was nothing like the covert operation that took place 100 years ago… This time it was just a bunch of backslapping as Bernanke and Co. spent the weekend hidden in plain sight, celebrating themselves as the smartest guys in the room. Advertisement Breaking: Fed’s Dirty Little Secret Could Make You Rich Economists agree… The Fed’s out-of-control printing press guarantees the dollar will soon crash. But while most investors panic, thousands already started taking advantage of one, very unique investment. It not only protects their portfolios, but it also makes them filthy rich in the process! Click here for your exclusive, inside peek. Back to where it all started For this, we have the most expensive hunting trip in history to thank. You see, while you didn’t learn this in school, the Federal Reserve Bank actually began in a New Jersey train station on a November night shrouded in secrecy. Leaving from the Hoboken Railway station in 1910 were a group of the nation’s leading financiers, along with a handful of powerful Washington insiders and their staff members. And while a few reporters suspiciously witnessed the gathering of these big wigs, none of them bothered to report on it. These men, they were told, were simply going “duck hunting.” But ducks had nothing to do with it… Leading the secret trip to Georgia was Senator Nelson Aldrich, head of the National Monetary Commission. Joining him were A. Piatt Andrew, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury; Frank Vanderlip, President of National City Bank of New York; Henry P. Davison, senior partner of J.P. Morgan Company (generally regarded as Morgan’s personal emissary); Charles D. Norton, President of the First National Bank of New York; Benjamin Strong, a known Lieutenant of J.P. Morgan; and Paul Warburg, a recent immigrant from Germany who had joined the banking house of Kuhn, Loeb and Company of New York as a partner. And while you may not recognize any of these names, they were among the most powerful and well-known men of their day. Together they represented approximately a quarter of all the world’s wealth. On an island off the coast of Georgia, the nation’s banking system changed forever… Once ensconced in their private and discreet playground, the rich and the powerful went to work creating the plan that would eventually become the Federal Reserve Bank. So it was out of these secret meetings that the control of the nation’s money supply was handed over to the very bankers and private corporations that earlier generations of Americans — including Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson — found to be so onerous. Some three years after that now famous “hunting trip,” the plan conceived on Jekyll Island became law. On December 22, 1913, while many members of Congress were celebrating Christmas at home, the Federal Reserve Act was rammed through Congress, and later signed into law by President Wilson. Ideas have consequences We have been at the mercy of their printing presses ever since… Which is why …

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Hedge Funds Dump Natural Gas Contracts

Filed in commodities, Gold, hedge-funds, natural-gas, New Gold, Spot Gold by on October 4, 2010 0 Comments
Hedge Funds Dump Natural Gas Contracts

Filed under: Commodities Hedge funds have the money and leverage to place large bets in commodities. This year, in particular, hedge funds have stepped up their exposure to commodities. Gold is a good example. Hedge funds have moved aggressively on the buy side during this past year. More than ever, the movement of funds by hedge funds is controlling commodity prices. Hedge funds dumped 25% of their positions in natural gas in the week ending Sept. 28, as reported in BusinessWeek . The commodity exchanges publish a commitment of traders report, which tracks the number of long and short contracts. Net long positions fell by 17,373 to 51,306. Continue reading Hedge Funds Dump Natural Gas Contracts Hedge Funds Dump Natural Gas Contracts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Oct 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Read  |  Permalink  |  Email this  |  Comments

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Housing Recovery is Here

Housing Recovery is Here

Welcome to the Wealth Daily Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Wealth Daily and sister publication articles. There’s an “ass” for every seat… and Wall Street is running out of chairs. “All is well with the economy,” they once told us. “There’s a recovery underway, but it just won’t feel like one.” The Great Recession ended in June 2009 when no one was looking. And people actually believe it — at least the dimwitted that live among us with short attention spans do… “Ooh, a shiny penny.” Advertisement Military’s Latest Energy Report Will Give You the Willies Inside, they confess a shocking truth… without any new developments, we only have 16 months of oil left! Before the media catches wind and panic drives the price of oil through the roof, I’ll show you how one group of companies solving the problem could make you filthy rich by Christmas. Click here to find out more.   More than 70% of Americans think now is a good time to buy a home, according to a Fannie Mae survey. And 78% believe home prices have either bottomed, or will rise next year. What are they thinking? Better yet, what are they drinking? Sure, home prices recovered over the last year… But that was thanks to an artificial stimulus known as “the home buyer tax credit.” Plus, home prices were recovering from a boost in confidence, as foreclosure numbers dropped. But let’s not be naďve here. Foreclosures only dropped because banks delayed the foreclosure process. I don’t want to hear that defaults are down 30%. It only happened because banks weren’t sending out the notices of default, which they did to keep housing prices afloat. Fact is, three long years and millions of foreclosed homes later, there’s still a wave of foreclosures headed our way — just as we’ve been warning readers about since the early days of 2007. We’re nowhere near the end of a crisis that could cost us $1.5 trillion. Thinking we’ve bottomed is like thinking you’d survive a nuclear blast. We’ve gone from one asset bubble, in which the Fed warned about irrational exuberance but did nothing… to another bubble (credit and housing), in which the Fed was implicit by keeping rates far too low for too long without regulation… to where we are now, witnessing the Fed blowing up yet another bubble. It’s pathetic. Anyone that tells you housing has bottomed shouldn’t be giving investment advice. Period. People are still losing their jobs. Resets haven’t finished. Foreclosures will mount even more than they already have. Without the home buyer tax credit, the government can’t prop up imaginary housing numbers any longer. More than 25% of homeowners owe more than their homes are worth. This could result in more strategic defaults, which in turn will drive up foreclosure rates even more. There is a tremendous amount of inventory on the market, and this will only grow as homeowners fail to pay their mortgages. With banks reeling from all the bad paper their holding, they’re not very motivated to lend money to people that could screw them later. So what incentive is there to buy a house? We still have these pesky resets that will hit very hard — and drop values further. There are two more waves…

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How to Profit When Big Oil Bets on Natural Gas

Filed in commodities, Debt, deflation, Gold, natural-gas, US Dollar by on September 20, 2010 0 Comments
How to Profit When Big Oil Bets on Natural Gas

Royal Dutch Shell said that by 2012 it expects more than half of its output will be natural gas — not oil. That is as if Starbucks said it expects to sell more tea than coffee. Yet this is not unusual for Big Oil these days. In fact, most are making big bets on natural gas. Exxon Mobil completed eight projects last year. Seven of them were for natural gas projects — not oil. Of the three scheduled this year, two of them are gas. ConocoPhillips paid $5 billion for Origen, an Australian gas company. Meanwhile, Chevron hammers away at its mammoth liquefied natural gas plant off the coast of Australia, at a total cost of more than $40 billion. (Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is easier to transport.) Most of the oil giants are also slamming billion-dollar fistfuls to pick up shale gas acreage in places such as the Marcellus in Appalachia. This shift creates new opportunities for investors. But before we get to those, let’s try to understand what’s happening. There are several things at work here. One is that new oil deposits, like pitchers who can hit, are becoming harder to find. They are also costlier. The Kashagan oil field, which was supposed to be a great find in the Caspian Sea, is seven years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. Another factor at work is that 90% of the world’s oil reserves are in the hands of national oil companies. They are off-limits for the likes of Exxon and others. By contrast, natural gas deposits are more plentiful. They are also getting cheaper to develop. The cost to build an offshore LNG terminal is about half of what it was only two years ago. The big LNG plants can be just as expensive as anything in the oil world, but — unlike oil — these projects don’t usually go forward unless there are long-term contracts in hand to support them. Some of these contracts go for 20-year terms. This makes the business more appealing to the majors, who don’t have to sweat the huge ups and downs they endure in the oil markets. With contracts in hand, the gas business is just one of putting together an Erector Set. As The Economist notes, “The gas business is really an infrastructure business: drill wells, build gas plants, install pipelines and accrue profits.” But there is more. The world’s use of natural gas is growing faster than its use of oil. The IEA’s guess is that oil consumption grows half a percent a year. Natural gas consumption, by contrast, should rise more than 50% in the next 20 years. Total, the big French oil company, is even more bullish. It estimates that China will use much more natural gas than is commonly assumed. Only a lack of infrastructure keeps China’s appetite for natural gas under wraps. But China is in the process of building that infrastructure today. It is only a matter of time before the nat gas markets feel its impact. Finally, natural gas is cleaner burning. There is a lot of talk of carbon taxes of one kind or another, not only in the U.S., but abroad. I believe it is matter of when, not if, governments punish dirtier fuels. …

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Go with the Flow

If the dollar is moving south and the indices are moving north that is conducive for commodities to trend higher. Crude is above the trend line mentioned in yesterday’s blog higher by over 3% in today’s session. Not to mention a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart so yes folks it looks like higher ground is in the future. Aggressive traders in futures should use $75.50 followed by $74.40 as support in August. A possible trade idea would be the October $80/85 call spread for $1700. Natural gas has lost ground for the last five days but $4.33 continues to support. Prices are starting to look over sold and we like purchasing 50 cent call spreads expecting a rebound in the coming weeks. Indices domestically and abroad showed strength today rising 1.50-3% climbing to fresh highs. As of this post the S&P is above the 50 day MA and we’ve yet to get clients short. They are prepped and we expect to make a move this week or next; at the moment we are eyeing 75 point ES September put spreads and scaling short into futures for clients. We feel there is limited upside but an additional 3-4% is not out of the question. We advised clients to take off more of their October sugar longs today thinking a correction may be in the immediate future. Sell a rally in cotton; we are selling above 77 for clients if given the opportunity. November lumber was higher by 3.20% today closing at $219; our target is $240-250. 30-yr bonds broke the 20 day MA trading down 0.70% as of this post. We’re anticipating a trade down to the 40 day MA at 124′16 unless the equity rally is derailed. Continue to buy dips in December live cattle. August gold

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Investors risk appetite returns

As long as indices tread water or move higher money should flow back into commodities and out of Treasuries and the US dollar. Crude followed thru today and now has the 20 day MA in its sights. As we said yesterday as long as equities move higher we think we could see Crude appreciate $3-5 relatively quickly. As of this post August is higher by $1.70. For the time being we would treat Crude as a range trade with resistance around $80 and support around $70. We advise position traders to remain long as long as August holds the $73.40 level. With an additional $3-4 move north in crude we should see the distillate move approximately 15 cents. August natural gas broke $4.50 today; futures traders should take off their longs at a loss. We continue to like buying clients October 50 cent call spreads but they may get clipped a little in premium in the coming sessions. That being said scale into the trade and do not try to outsmart the market. Sideways congestion in indices was expected after yesterday. We’re looking to be a seller from higher levels in the S&P. It is my opinion we will see upside surprises on earnings that will paint a false hope allowing our clients to get short closer to 1100 in the coming weeks. We worked out of some of our client’s longs in October sugar today and hope to see a higher trade tomorrow and to work out of the remainder. Inside day in cotton today; clients need a trade at/or around 73 cents in December to get filled on their gtc profit orders. OJ was lower by 5.43% today. Another 7-10% decline and we may have an interest in buying November calls for clients. Aggressive traders can continue to short Treasuries with stops above the recent highs. As we said yesterday we’re looking to lighten our clients exposure in currencies before stepping into September NOB spreads. Trail stops up on your live cattle longs

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First Trust ISE-Reserve Natural Gas (FCG): 30 Picks in One

Filed in Bank Gold, commodities, lead, natural-gas by on July 7, 2010 0 Comments

Filed under: Newsletters , ETF Investing , Commodities , Oil , Green Stocks “The biggest opportunity for energy investors today is natural gas. And investors can buy 30 natural gas stocks with one ETF: the First Trust ISE-Reserve Natural Gas ETF ( FCG ),” says Ian Wyatt . The editor of The 100K Portfolio explains, “There are many reasons for businesses, consumers, investors and politicians to be bullish on this commodity. Natural gas seemingly has everything we could want from an energy source – it’s cheap, clean, and there is an abundance of it throughout our country. “For this very reason, ExxonMobil, the world’s largest energy company, is acquiring one of the leading natural gas companies in the country – XTO Energy. The $41 billion acquisition will make ExxonMobil the single biggest producer of natural gas, solidifying the company’s commanding position in the energy sector. Smart investors should follow Exxon’s lead and look to gain exposure to natural gas today. Continue reading First Trust ISE-Reserve Natural Gas (FCG): 30 Picks in One First Trust ISE-Reserve Natural Gas (FCG): 30 Picks in One originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Jul 2010 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink  |  Email this  |  Comments

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Fireworks in the Markets

Very suitable fireworks in the markets as we celebrate our Independence. Be safe we will be back Tuesday…enjoy your long weekend. We feel oil could have another 3-4% downside at the most before we get a bounce higher. As we voiced in recent posts we expect the $70 level to act as solid support in August. If next weeks trade finds buyers we should have some bullish plays in September or October futures and options. Inside day in natural gas wiped out most of the previous days gains. Aggressive trades could have used today’s setback to buy as we will stay long with clients as long as $4.50 supports in August. Our featured play is call spreads in October with clients. From here we expect indices to bounce; we view this as a tradable bottom but nothing more. On a bounce to 1060-1070 in the S&P we will be shopping bearish plays for clients. October sugar was higher by 2.58% today’s closing at a six week high. On a run above 17 cents we see resistance at 17.45 followed by 18.35. If lucky enough to see that we advised clients to exit ALL remaining longs. On a settlement below 16 cents early next week our upside objectives would need to be reduced. December cotton closed lower all five sessions this week; our 74 cent objective is getting closer. Aggressive traders that are ok trading illiquid markets could lightly buy November lumber as an interim low is likely in. Though volumes were light yesterday could prove to be an interim top in Treasuries; on confirmation next week clients will be looking at NOB spreads (short 30-yr bonds/long 10-yr notes). Continue to accumulate longs in December live cattle. It was encouraging today in the metals to see little down side follow thru. Gold was slightly higher but unable to close above the 50 day MA. We will let the dust settle before making any calls. Trade lower was rejected in silver with prices closing just above the 100 day MA; in September at $17.83. We suggest buying silver as prices have come down 7.5% this week. Use set backs in corn, wheat and soybeans to be a buyer as we think the lows are in. Our favorite remains corn as we suggested clients to buy December next week on any retracement. As for currencies we have three ideas, long the Loonie, short the Yen and short the Swissie. For specifics do not hesitate to contact us. Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is

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How to Prepare for a Double Dip Recession

Welcome to the Wealth Daily Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Wealth Daily and sister publication articles. All is well, according to the White House. The economy is strengthening. We’re in a continued recovery… that just “won’t feel terrific,” says Helicopter Ben. But it’s not really true — and Bernanke knows that. Just one look at yesterday’s jobs number and he knows we’re not recovering. What’s he supposed to say, though? “We’re in the eye of a crap storm”? For exactly how long DC and Bernanke can kick the can down the road, hoping for economic recovery, is anyone’s best guess… Advertisement 89,000% Profits from the Alzheimer’s Cure Hicks and Lowe Letter Publishers Brian Hicks and Bill Lowe just released a stunning new report documenting on company’s discovery of a breakthrough technology that has already shown to protect and regenerate neurons in pre-clincal animal tests… Expert analysts are already predicting 688% gains for their investors by next year — and long-term gains of up to 89,822%. Click here to learn more.  Sure, most economists still think the odds of a double dip are low. But our economy is weak. This, after trillions of dollars have been pumped into the economy; the banking sector was restarted, the government messed around with housing, and kept the auto industry from burying itself. Hiring is weak. Even Biden doesn’t think everyone will get their jobs back. Consumers aren’t happy, as seen in confidence numbers. Debt just rocketed to levels not seen since World War II. Stimulus dollars are running out, debt is spreading across Europe and then there’s the Gulf of Mexico, err, the Black Sea of Mexico. And we won’t even get into the commercial real estate debacle today. We don’t have the space for it. Without another shot of stimulus, we’re headed down. Look, I’m not trying to scare you with economic pessimism… I’m simply trying to protect you and show you how to profit when all goes mad. And I’ll give you two ways to do so in just a few moments. But first: A look at why the market could be headed off a cliff Past recessions started because of Fed over-shooting, trying to control inflationary threats by raising interest rates too high. A recession could then be fixed if the Fed lowered rates. Nowadays, we have no bullets left in the chamber unless Ben turns on the printing press… or gets the masses to believe that all is well. (It’s not as if buttering up the public is difficult.) But this recession — or slowdown, or depression, or whatever you want to call it — can’t be reversed unless we see …

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