renminbi

2011 Stock Market Predictions

2011 Stock Market Predictions

I have no idea what will happen in 2011. None whatsoever… But who would? Main Street has just about given up on Wall Street, withdrawing some $77 billion from mutual funds. We’ve watched as Bernanke lied to us about dollar monetization and inflationary threats… We witnessed the Fed pump billions into the pipelines, the fight over health care, Greece’s implosion, imbecilic actions in D.C., stupidity on trading room floors, unrest in Europe, dollar devaluations… and so much more. And someone is supposed to know what’s coming next? As we say goodbye to 2010, here’s what the smart money seems to be betting on: Commodities will continue to explode. Gold will rally to $1,500. Silver will break $30… again. Copper will nail new highs. And oil could easily run amok above $100 a barrel again. Coal will spike higher. FBR Capital just upped 2011-2012 coal prices by about 9.5% and 5.8%. “Part of our steam-coal price forecast is tied to higher exports and raising our natural-gas price forecast to $5.50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf),” they said. And there’s news of power plant coal shortages in China, which supports higher demand. Buy if you haven’t yet. Rare earth stocks will skyrocket on supply-demand issues. China is increasing tariffs, and there’s no end to low export quotas out of China… Molycorp (MCP), Rare Earth Elements (REE), the Rare Earth ETF (REMX), and our $1.50 Greenland stock will pick up momentum. Buy rare earths now. Housing will not recover— not until 2014 at the earliest. And banks will suffer. Mortgage troubles are rising as prices continue to fall in vulnerable markets; there aren’t enough buyers to pick up the overhang, declines, or coming foreclosures. Even RealtyTrac doesn’t see a recovery until 2014. And don’t forget that mortgage rates will rise again in 2011, dampening any demand and cutting back on affordability. The agflation threat will continue to increase …

Continue Reading »

I Want Me Gold

I Want Me Gold

The price of physical gold hit a three-month high in London this morning on news that the Chinese were not going to hike interest rates. Most traders were expecting the Chinese to hike rates to stave off inflation, which is now at a 28-month high of 5.1%. In an effort to hedge against this inflation, Chinese retail investors are turning to gold. In Friday’s Wealth Daily , Luke Burgess wrote: China’s gold imports to jump 457% this year. The Shanghai Gold Exchange recently revealed China’s gold imports jumped almost fivefold in the first 10 months of this year. And even though China is the world’s #1 producer, the country is expected to import 9.2 million ounces of gold this year as inflation concerns lifts investment demand. Albert Cheng, managing director of the World Gold Council’s Far East department, said at a recent conference in Shanghai that China’s gold investment demand may reach 150 tons this year — a 42.9% increase compared to 2009. New renminbi gold contract Demand is so high in China that the Hong Kong bullion exchange will launch the first international gold contract denominated in renminbi in the spring of 2011. According to The Financial Times , “The new contract comes as China pushes for greater international use of the currency and as Hong Kong’s precious metals industry seeks to take advantage of booming gold demand on the mainland.” The exchange expects trading volume will see a 20% increase when the renminbi gold bars hit the market. Currency flees China In light of Chinese inflation fears, the renminbi is flowing out of the mainland and into Hong Kong. Deposits jumped 45% in October from September to US$32.5 billion— helped along by currency restrictions, which were lifted in July. Demand is expected to increase so much that the Hong Kong government set up a high-security gold vault for overseas investors to store their gold. The tale of three charts The combination of currency wars and inflation in China means that both gold and oil are on the verge of breaking out. The U.S. Dollar Index is at a crossroads… As you can see, the Dollar Index against a basket of currencies is in a long-term downward trend and below its 200-day moving average. At the same time, there is support at 76. I expect it will trade in this range for the rest of 2011 as the fight between global flight to safety and the bond vigilantes work themselves out. Oil pushing a breakout We have a new range for crude as it is bouncing between $87 and $91 a barrel. As the global economy gets back on track, we should see oil breakout above $91. The Wall Street Journal ‘s survey of economists raised their projection for GDP growth to 2.6% for 2011, up from 2.4%. Both FedEx and UPS are gearing up for their busiest day ever today; UPS expects to ship 16 million packages up 13% from last year. Shipping companies are leading indicators. I want me gold The price of gold continues to stair-step higher. There are a number of things that could drop the price of gold: A massive new discovery on the scale of Spain’s discovery of South American gold mine could swamp demand; Or governments could tie…

Continue Reading »

US Dollar, Economic Influence, Waning on Global Stage

The rebuke and rejection of the request by the U.S. to pressure China to into increasing the value of the renminbi by the G-20 underscores the declining economic influence of America in the world, as well as the U.S. dollar, which has become a disaster. Not only was the idea of pressuring China on their currency rejected, but the U.S. and the disastrous Federal Reserve were castigated by

Continue Reading »