Commodity Roundup – Markets on your Radar

Filed in commodities, copper, currencies, Debt, economy, euro, Gold, o, outperform, silver, ubs by on January 8, 2011 0 Comments

MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything outside of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard President of MB Wealth. As most followers recognize, I break the commodity markets into seven sectors: financials which include the indices and debt markets, energies, currencies, livestock, metals, grains and finally the softs. So let’s examine sector by sector what should be on your radar as we conclude one trading year and a fresh year of opportunity is upon us. Financials While the first part of the year brought uncertainty and perhaps too much pessimism after a bottom formed in the summer indices have appreciated lifting the Dow and S&P approximately 25%. From here, we think prices have gotten ahead of themselves and expect a 5% depreciation from their current levels. Aggressive clients have started to purchase March ES bear put spreads . Reflecting back on the year, Treasuries have had an inverse relationship to the indices enjoying trade higher in the first half of the year reaching an interim top in the summer and falling off since. The greatest loss has been in Q4, as yields have increased and 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes have lost considerably. We expect to see a bounce into the new year and have advised aggressive clients to buy dips in 30-yr bonds, 10-yr notes or to position themselves in NOB spreads with their directional bias in the direction of bonds. Energies There has been a powerful force lifting prices higher in crude oil and the distillates virtually all year and we see no reason for that to change. Continue to use price retracements as buying opportunities as we see $110/115 in Crude by mid 2011. Assuming we are correct with this assumption, both heating oil and RBOB would likely be 20-25% higher as well. Natural gas remains a dog unable to make any significant headway all year. There have been fits and starts but the range bound action for the last six months has been discouraging and lost my clients money on several attempts. From here we may opt to scale into long…

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Commodity Roundup – Markets on your Radar

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