Tag: feeds

It’s Funny How We Get The Perfect Job Number

It’s Funny How We Get The Perfect Job Number

Earlier this week on January 5th, 2011 the payroll processing company ADP reported that the U.S. economy had added 297,000 jobs. The economists went wild raising the expectations of today’s government non-farm payroll report to over 200,000 jobs. However, today the job report was released at 8:30 am EST and the U.S. Labor Department only reported a headline number of 103,000. This is quite a disappointment for all those who thought the economy was adding much more jobs as the ADP report suggested. It is important to note that all of these reports cannot be trusted. Even in modern times with all the wonderful technology in the world it seems that the readings when it comes to economic data should be taken with a grain of salt. All that really matters is if the Federal Reserve Bank will continue with it’s U.S. Treasury purchases called QE-2. As long the central bank continues to create capital reserves by buying bonds and keeps the fed funds rate at zero percent the economy will inflate overall. That has been seen throughout history. Investors should just look at when the former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Alan Greenspan, lowered the fed funds rates(overnight lending rate to large major banks) to 1.00 percent in 2002. The economy inflated higher for five straight years. However, once interest rates began to increase the economy had already created one of the biggest bubbles in recent times. That was obviously the housing and credit bubble of 2007-2008. We can only wonder how bad this bubble will be that is being created now? The Federal Reserve Bank tells us that there is no inflation. However, the economies in Asia are trying to fight inflation. If this is a global economy how could one part of the world have inflation and the other part have no inflation? It is simply because of the labor market and the fuzzy math that is used by the economists. When a country has high unemployment there is never signs of inflation. However, if one looks at the price of copper, gold, silver, gasoline, oil, or food they will easily see that there is inflation. Leading commodity stocks such as Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.(NYSE:FCX), Southern Copper Corp.(NYSE:SCCO), Silver Wheaton Corp.(NYSE:SLW), and many others are trading at or near all time highs. You see today’s weaker than expected job number gives the Federal Reserve an excuse to say that we need to continue their quantitative easing program. Remember quantitative easing is the catalyst for the rally as traders and investors continue to buy the dip. If today’s government job report would have been near 300,000 new jobs the U.S. Dollar would have spiked along with higher U.S. Treasury yields. This would have caused a major sell off. Therefore, you can see how a not so good or even a disappointing job number can be good for the stock market. It’s simply amazing how this all works. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks

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Rude awakening of the sleeping Giant

Filed in BP, Debt, euro, Gold, o, target by on November 26, 2010 0 Comments

Euro has clearly broken 1.329s or the low it had posted earlier this week nonetheless this break to us is only like an earth quake which took place far off land and in the deep ocean and therefore the land dwellers are breathing a sigh of relief that they escaped this major “Quake” or else it would have been a major catastrophe. Unfortunately the “sigh of relief” seems short lived the seas start reseeding [A pull back expected in Euro from lows of today to near break point of 1.329s] and this being a sign the “wave watchers” raise their alarms of a possible tsunami to hit land and that is when major damage is done. This “Tsunami” however, shall take enough time to clear the weekend and early hours of trading in Asia before the seas start to swell up to unleash its fury. As we have stated yesterday and day before in our articles that markets are following the classic rule of buy on rumor and sell on fact, today’s drop to us was a surprise for the market as at first the Deputy Governor of Spanish Central Bank Mr. Ariztegui somewhat disturbed the sleeping giant by his statement that “It is necessary for Spain to continue restructuring and informing” but as if that wasn’t enough that later Spanish Finance Minister Mr. Salgado also raised concerns of the street with his view on Spanish debt auctions. The above statements of the gentlemen are now known to the market therefore no ambiguities are left and hence the Euro will digest it and forget about it as it has awaits a much bigger announcement regarding the bailout package of Ireland over the weekend therefore Euro should trace back to levels near to the break point and settle around 1.337s for the day. We are sticking with our lowered target of Euro at 1.28s for this coming week and the pull back that we’d see in Euro would do Euro good on technical terms as a consolidation is required for a hard break down to 1.28s and currently Euro is on the sides of being slightly oversold. Now, coming to Cable and the battle of troy or 1.57s was finally lost. As we had stated yesterday that cable would continue to move sideways to gain some much needed meat [consolidation, as cable was partially oversold] to break the untested support of 1.57s, well that is precisely what happened and today Cable breaks the bottom. The break only took place today however; we had already on November 24th stated the downside of GBP lies to 1.54 and we stand by it even now. The culprit is none other than Green back as the Dollar Index has smartly risen over 79.6 now and we in our article [Days of Benefactors are now numbered] dated November 23rd stated “The U.S Dollar Index is bouncing back from low 78s and at the moment there seems no hurdle then in its path to stop it from breaking over 79.6 which shall give rise to a move upwards to

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Daily Forecast: November 25

Filed in BP, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, o, silver, target by on November 24, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: November 25

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. I think as long as price stays below 1.3446 the nearest bias remains bearish testing 1.3260 and the lower line of the bullish channel which is the key support area at this phase where some buying interest could be seen around that area. A violation to the bullish channel would be a threat to the long term bullish outlook and could be an early signal of a new long term bearish outlook. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart indicates the bearish pressure is still potential. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but need a clear break below 1.5750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.5650 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5850. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5900 – 1.5950 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart suggests that the bearish pressure is still potential. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday but still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70 and still need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 83.70 or long around 82.84 with tight stop loss. I personally prefer to stand aside and maintain my wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF was volatile yesterday but overall still showed no significant technical movement and still trapped in range area of 1.0000 – 0.9850. I am still in wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. So far price still able to maintain position above the triangle so I am expecting a break to the upside. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 1.0000 or long around 0.9850 with tight stop loss. Clear break above 1.0000 could trigger further bullish continuation targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9920/00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850 but only a clear break below 0.9850 could be a threat to the bullish outlook testing 0.9800 – 0.9750. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: October 20

Filed in Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, silver by on October 19, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: October 20

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below 1.3800 key support area, bottomed and closed around 1.3700. This fact confirms my technical bearish reversal scenario at least targeting 1.3600. Immediate resistance at 1.3800. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.3900/20 but any upside pullback after a strong bearish movement is normal and as long as price move inside the bearish channel I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD also had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5649 and closed at 1.5655. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing the lower line of the major bullish channel and 1.5600 area but note that as long as the major bullish channel hold, the major bullish scenario remains intact. A clear break below 1.5600 could be seen as the end of the bullish phase and the beginning of a new bearish trend. Immediate resistance at 1.5750 followed by 1.5835 which probably could be tested as any upside pullback after a strong bearish momentum is normal. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY slipped above the trend line resistance but unable to stay above the trend line so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we are in no trade zone as direction is unclear. The major bearish scenario remains valid but need a clear break below 80.85 (double bottom) to continue the bearish pressure testing 80.00. On the upside we need a consistent move above the trend line resistance and 81.95 to continue the upside correction scenario triggered by double bottom formation testing 82.87. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF violated the bearish channel to the upside yesterday, topped at 0.9756 and closed at 0.9715. This fact is a serious threat to the bearish scenario especially if price able to move consistently above 0.9730 targeting 0.9877. Immediate support at 0.9650. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would be unclear in nearest term testing 0.9577/50 support area but as long as price move inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish correction phase with potential bullish reversal scenario. Have a great day!

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Geithner’s Comments Oddly Support USD

Geithner’s Comments Oddly Support USD

Treasury Secretary Geithner’s comment helped the sagging USD recover some lost ground during today’s Asian session although the greenback still remains highly volatile. Geithner revealed that USD devaluation was not a national strategy, nor was it effective. He confirmed that the US was in no way engaging in this tactic. It seems that there were more than a few conspirators out there because the USD reaction rally was larger than what it should have been based on Geithner sound bite. Did anyone really expect him to admit that the United States was fully engaged in “currency wars”, had abandoned its historical strong USD policy and was now actively working to destroy its value through rampant quantitative easing (QE)? Of course not – so it begs the question, why such a strong reaction to the comment? Most likely because many macro-traders were thinking just that. They must have believed the US government was aggressively pursuing a weaker dollar – the statement from Treasury that this is not the case and not their goal made shorting the USD less attractive and thus sparked the rally. Clearly Geithner wanted to address the market’s growing concern that further QE will not address America’s stagnate and eroding economic fundamentals but merely further devalue the USD. In regards to China, he observed that “the CNY is significantly undervalued, more so than is true of any major significant emerging-market currency…It’s unfair to all of China’s trading partners, Americans and others, because it just creates a playing field that’s unbalanced.” As we predicted on Monday, going into the G20 meeting this weekend, we will hear more strongly worded rhetoric from all over (today’s calendar is chocked full of speakers including Trichet who surely has a few words of his own). Given that we don’t suspect any consensus or overarching agreement on currency to come out of the G20, we would actively fade as positions as the week goes on. Today the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 1.00%. BoC Governor Carney has been very transparent about his concern over a probable spillover from the fledgling US economy in Canada which could significantly affect the trajectory of Canadian rates. That said, investors have been steering clear of the CAD when compared to other commodity-bloc currencies and should Wednesday’s Monetary Policy Report confirm that Canada remains in a holding pattern, watch for the CAD to lag further. In Australia, the RBA minutes were not as hawkish as the market had anticipated yet the AUDUSD rallied anyhow – pulling other G10 currencies with it. While the RBA still has a tightening bias, the probability of a near term hike seems remote and the wording was very balanced. Even if Q3 Aussie CPI prints high, it’s unlikely to move the central bank into action in 2010. Today’s Forex market will be…

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Daily Forecast: October 19

Filed in Gold, Gold Bullion prices, silver by on October 18, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: October 19

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3831 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.3997 and closed at 1.3963, formed a Doji on daily chart indicates volatile but indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are in consolidation phase. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a new bearish channel since bearish pullback from 1.4158. The major bullish scenario remains intact but need a clear break above the bearish channel and 1.4028/50 area to reactivate my bullish mode testing 1.4158 again. Immediate support at 1.3900. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3800 area. Clear break below 1.3800 area would confirm the bearish reversal scenario targeting 1.3600 region. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5836 but closed higher at 1.5903. However, I think overall price still maintain its bearish intra-day bias after violated the minor bullish channel targeting 1.5750 before testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white channel) especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.5836 today. On the upside, I need a movement back above 1.6000 area to reactivate my bullish mode targeting 1.6100 – 1.6150. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains strongly bearish but need a clear break below the double bottom formation around 80.85 to continue the bearish pressure targeting 80.00. Immediate resistance at 81.70 and the trend line resistance. Clear break above that area could trigger further upside correction and give

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Will China Continue to Lead S&P Higher?

Filed in Gold, lead by on October 15, 2010 0 Comments
Will China Continue to Lead S&P Higher?

Let’s have a look at our comparison chart between the Shanghai Composite and S&P 500, as we examine whether the SPX will continue to follow China higher. Since October 8, when the Shanghai Composite returned after a one week holiday, the China index is up 11% and +26% from its major low in July. Through the August timeframe, we often discussed the hypothesis that the China bear phase from August 2009 ended in July 2010, and that China is leading the resurgence of global equity markets. Since its July low, the SPX is up “only” 17%, but if it is following the Shanghai (and the Shanghai is heading for 2990, a gain of another 4.5%), then perhaps the SPX is heading for 1235-1240 before the bulls reach exhaustion? If that is the case, then the basic materials and mining stocks should derive some meaningful benefit. For the moment, one of our few long equity positions is Arch Coal (ACI), as my technical work still indicates that the natural resource producers will benefit from their “China connection.”

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Gold and Stocks Can’t Dance Together Forever

Filed in currencies, earnings, economy, Gold, gold bugs, inflation, shares, silver by on October 15, 2010 0 Comments
Gold and Stocks Can’t Dance Together Forever

Stocks and bullion are moving so closely in-step these days that gold bugs may soon find themselves in the uncomfortable position of rooting for higher share prices. For many of them this will be quite a stretch, since gold and silver are popular now mainly because they’re regarded as hedges against the kind of economic disaster that would sink the stock market. To be sure, there are some who see the concurrent strength of shares and bullion as stemming from the same source – namely, inflationary pressures. The argument is solid and there is no way to refute it, since no one can say exactly why shares are rising. Whatever the reason, bullion’s ascent is easier to understand: It is occurring simply because the central banks have been inflating their respective currencies to the point of valuelessness. But while this ever-accelerating process of debasement has the potential to drive precious-metal prices into the ozone, it seems unlikely that share prices would benefit from such a scenario, implying as it does a looming catastrophe for the global economy. What this suggests is that although bullion quotes could conceivably be goosed to the moon if the world’s currency system were to collapse, shares prices could be driven only so high by panic. For in the final analysis, corporate stocks are tethered to the real world of earnings multiples, cash flow, inventory and depreciation in a way that gold and silver are not. And while the imagination can run wild with gold and silver valuations in a world presumed to have lost all trust in paper money, the future value of, say, IBM’s service contracts is going to be limited ultimately by more mundane concerns. Extreme Predictions So, if the stock market were to plummet, do we expect gold and silver prices fall with it? The answer is no, but only because we think stocks will ultimately be undone by a collapsing dollar. That’s not exactly a black-swan event, since nothing could be more predictable than the collapse of a currency that is already fundamentally worthless. But we strongly doubt that shares and gold would decouple

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Chart of the Day – 10/07/2010 – EUR/USD

Filed in Gold Bullion prices, ubs by on October 7, 2010 0 Comments

10/07/2010 – EUR/USD – Price action on EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Thursday (10/07/2010) has risen substantially from its 1.3800 resistance breakout point to reach and slightly surpass its 1.4000 target before retreating, establishing a fresh 8-month high in the process. This occurs within the context of a steep uptrend channel that has characterized this pair since the September low around 1.2650. The current directional bias, in line with the strong bullish trend, continues to be to the upside. Having hit a confluence of resistance around the 1.4000 level, which is also around the top of the parallel uptrend channel, a bearish retracement could be in the making, with strong downside support in the noted 1.3800 prior resistance region. To the upside, on a strong re-break above 1.4000, which would confirm a continuation of the current uptrend, a key upside resistance target resides in the 1.4200 price region, which is both a prior support/resistance level as well as a key 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the latest bullish run. James Chen, CMT Chief Technical Strategist FX Solutions IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. The information contained on this document does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions, LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. (Chart courtesy of FX Solutions’ FX

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Forget Gold, Try this ETF Instead (GLD, SMH, INTC)

Filed in economy, gld, Gold, Gold Bullion prices by on October 1, 2010 0 Comments
Forget Gold, Try this ETF Instead (GLD, SMH, INTC)

With Gold (GLD) reaching all-time highs again this week more investors are putting cash into anything precious metal related but I am here to caution you on doing so. There are far better opportunities than gold right now and chasing this trend is not the formula for generating short-term growth. We have traded GLD call options 8 times this year (7 profitable) in the ETF TRADR portfolio but now it’s time to step away. Of course, what type of ‘tradr’ would I be if I failed to offer a better alternative. First off, it would be very difficult to find a long-term chart more strong and persistent than the Gold chart – it’s nothing short of amazing (and at the same time scary for the future of the dollar). That said, even as Gold has made new highs in recent days there is a better place to focus your trading capital. The semiconductor industry has lifted off in recent days and I expect it to continue. Here’s the performance chart between the headline-making Gold (GLD) rally and the Semiconductor ETF (SMH). So what’s making the semis perform so well? It’s certainly not the lackluster outlook from PC manufacturers who continue to see challenges ahead. It was just three weeks ago when Intel (INTC) slashed their outlook sending the stock down nearly 4%. Others like Cisco have also expressed concern with speak of “unusual uncertainty” in the global economy that could impact sales. If these headlines weren’t enough many analysts also believe Apple’s iPad is hurting sales of the Semiconductor Industry because the chip is Apple branded and made by Samsung who is not a major Semiconductor. The major players are not benefiting from this particular increase in chip demand. Click here to view the full post including my video analysis If you want real-time ETF and ETF Option recommendations start with our Freemium TRADR by signing up here

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Daily Forecast: October 01

Filed in euro, Gold, silver, Yen by on October 1, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: October 01

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, formed A Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price still maintain its strong bullish outlook. We have a resistance around 1.3700 area. Break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3888. Immediate support at 1.3600 followed by 1.3550. Lower, 1.3500 could be a key support area at this phase. Correction is natural and always happen in the market but technically I do not expect any correction below 1.3500 for now unless we have a big negative fundamental surprise in the Euro zone or US which could create risk aversion sentiment and push the Euro lower. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD made another volatile movement yesterday but this time with more bearish bias than what happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. Price slipped below the minor bullish channel and now struggling around the lower line of the channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. On another technical perspective, this high volatile movement created a broadening formation, where price make new highs and lows but show unclear direction. I will stay away from this pair for now. For me, EUR/USD is a better pair to be traded in this condition. A consistent move below the minor bullish channel and break below the lower line of the broadening formation and 1.5650 support area could trigger further bearish momentum, change nearest term bias to bearish but as long as price move inside the major bullish channel (white) the major bullish

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Daily Forecast: September 27

Filed in euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, Yen by on September 26, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 27

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3494 and closed at 1.3488 after break out above my minor bearish channel indicating potential further bullish scenario especially if price able to make another strong break out ab0ve 1.3500 targeting 1.3700. Note that 1.3500 could be an important and strong resistance area at this phase since it is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5140 – 1.1876 , so I think we need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish momentum. Another bearish pullback after testing 1.3500 area on Friday is normal and another minor bearish channel could be formed, but overall we are still in strong bullish bias unless price break below the major bullish channel (white). Immediate support at 1.3438 – 1.3400. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.3310 support area but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. Although there are many who maintain their negative outlook on global recovery progress which should create risk aversion and push the Euro down, price action shows that market still have positive bias after FOMC meeting and some good fundamental data lately. Trade the facts, not the opinions. GBPUSD Forecast As I had expected, the GBPUSD made strong bullish movement after break above 1.5728, topped at 1.5841 and closed at 1.5821. This fact opens the door for further bullish continuation targeting 1.6000 region especially if price make another strong break out above 1.5841. Immediate support at 1.5728 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario for now. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY was technically a mess on Friday. Price slipped above 84.82, topped at 85.38 but quickly whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 84.20. The way I see it, there are some forces in the market trying to go against the Japanese government acts to weaken the Yen and this is a very tricky situation. I will stand aside for now. Technically speaking, the bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 84.00 re-testing 82.87 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 84.82 to continue the bullish momentum testing 85.90 region and keep the upside outlook intact. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.9778 but the bearish momentum was limited as price closed higher at 0.9828 and keep moving higher around 0.9858 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a major bearish scenario testing at least 0.9730 support area. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9931. Break above that area and violation to the upside of the bearish channel could lead us to neutral medium outlook. Have a great day!

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