Tag: forecast

Queensland bracing for monster tropical cyclone Yasi

Filed in Bank Gold, Gold, o by on January 31, 2011 0 Comments
Queensland bracing for monster tropical cyclone Yasi

Flood ravaged Queensland is preparing for a monstrous South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Yasi.  Forecast to reach Category 4+ strength on the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, there really is nothing inhibiting this storm from explosively intensifying and reaching 135 knots+ in … Continue reading →

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Daily Forecast: November 25

Filed in BP, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, o, silver, target by on November 24, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: November 25

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. I think as long as price stays below 1.3446 the nearest bias remains bearish testing 1.3260 and the lower line of the bullish channel which is the key support area at this phase where some buying interest could be seen around that area. A violation to the bullish channel would be a threat to the long term bullish outlook and could be an early signal of a new long term bearish outlook. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart indicates the bearish pressure is still potential. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but need a clear break below 1.5750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.5650 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5850. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5900 – 1.5950 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart suggests that the bearish pressure is still potential. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday but still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70 and still need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 83.70 or long around 82.84 with tight stop loss. I personally prefer to stand aside and maintain my wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF was volatile yesterday but overall still showed no significant technical movement and still trapped in range area of 1.0000 – 0.9850. I am still in wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. So far price still able to maintain position above the triangle so I am expecting a break to the upside. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 1.0000 or long around 0.9850 with tight stop loss. Clear break above 1.0000 could trigger further bullish continuation targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9920/00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850 but only a clear break below 0.9850 could be a threat to the bullish outlook testing 0.9800 – 0.9750. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: October 20

Filed in Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, silver by on October 19, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: October 20

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below 1.3800 key support area, bottomed and closed around 1.3700. This fact confirms my technical bearish reversal scenario at least targeting 1.3600. Immediate resistance at 1.3800. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.3900/20 but any upside pullback after a strong bearish movement is normal and as long as price move inside the bearish channel I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD also had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5649 and closed at 1.5655. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing the lower line of the major bullish channel and 1.5600 area but note that as long as the major bullish channel hold, the major bullish scenario remains intact. A clear break below 1.5600 could be seen as the end of the bullish phase and the beginning of a new bearish trend. Immediate resistance at 1.5750 followed by 1.5835 which probably could be tested as any upside pullback after a strong bearish momentum is normal. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY slipped above the trend line resistance but unable to stay above the trend line so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we are in no trade zone as direction is unclear. The major bearish scenario remains valid but need a clear break below 80.85 (double bottom) to continue the bearish pressure testing 80.00. On the upside we need a consistent move above the trend line resistance and 81.95 to continue the upside correction scenario triggered by double bottom formation testing 82.87. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF violated the bearish channel to the upside yesterday, topped at 0.9756 and closed at 0.9715. This fact is a serious threat to the bearish scenario especially if price able to move consistently above 0.9730 targeting 0.9877. Immediate support at 0.9650. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would be unclear in nearest term testing 0.9577/50 support area but as long as price move inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish correction phase with potential bullish reversal scenario. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: October 19

Filed in Gold, Gold Bullion prices, silver by on October 18, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: October 19

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3831 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.3997 and closed at 1.3963, formed a Doji on daily chart indicates volatile but indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are in consolidation phase. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a new bearish channel since bearish pullback from 1.4158. The major bullish scenario remains intact but need a clear break above the bearish channel and 1.4028/50 area to reactivate my bullish mode testing 1.4158 again. Immediate support at 1.3900. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3800 area. Clear break below 1.3800 area would confirm the bearish reversal scenario targeting 1.3600 region. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5836 but closed higher at 1.5903. However, I think overall price still maintain its bearish intra-day bias after violated the minor bullish channel targeting 1.5750 before testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white channel) especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.5836 today. On the upside, I need a movement back above 1.6000 area to reactivate my bullish mode targeting 1.6100 – 1.6150. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains strongly bearish but need a clear break below the double bottom formation around 80.85 to continue the bearish pressure targeting 80.00. Immediate resistance at 81.70 and the trend line resistance. Clear break above that area could trigger further upside correction and give

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Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (reversal week edition)

Filed in Gold Investing, Gold Prices, silver by on October 3, 2010 0 Comments

Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (reversal week edition)   With the exception of the usual Fed POMO-induced ramp jobs, stocks did next to nothing last week, spending most of their time in a six point trading range. Indeed, the only really sign…

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Daily Forecast: October 01

Filed in euro, Gold, silver, Yen by on October 1, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: October 01

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, formed A Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price still maintain its strong bullish outlook. We have a resistance around 1.3700 area. Break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3888. Immediate support at 1.3600 followed by 1.3550. Lower, 1.3500 could be a key support area at this phase. Correction is natural and always happen in the market but technically I do not expect any correction below 1.3500 for now unless we have a big negative fundamental surprise in the Euro zone or US which could create risk aversion sentiment and push the Euro lower. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD made another volatile movement yesterday but this time with more bearish bias than what happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. Price slipped below the minor bullish channel and now struggling around the lower line of the channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. On another technical perspective, this high volatile movement created a broadening formation, where price make new highs and lows but show unclear direction. I will stay away from this pair for now. For me, EUR/USD is a better pair to be traded in this condition. A consistent move below the minor bullish channel and break below the lower line of the broadening formation and 1.5650 support area could trigger further bearish momentum, change nearest term bias to bearish but as long as price move inside the major bullish channel (white) the major bullish

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Daily Forecast: September 28

Filed in Gold, Gold Bullion prices, Yen by on September 27, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 28

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 1.3500 resistance area. The bias is neutral in nearest term as price is consolidating. The strong bullish outlook remains intact but need a clear break above 1.3500 to continue the bullish momentum testing 1.3700. On the downside, immediate support at 1.3400 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below that area could diminish the bullish outlook. As you can see on my h4 chart below, CCI maintain above zero level during the strong bullish momentum. A violation to the bullish channel followed by CCI movement below zero level could trigger significant bearish pressure testing 1.3310 support area. On the other hand, another rejection to move below zero level followed by a clear break above 1.3500 could continue the bullish scenario. My fundamental focus today will be on German Prelim CPI and US CB Consumer Confidence. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to drive the movement during the release so good numbers could continue the upside pressure while bad numbers could trigger downside pullback. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD slipped above 1.5841 yesterday but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 1.5808. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase indicated by two bullish channels as you can see on my h4 chart below. CCI in neutral area indicates limited bullish pressure so far as price is consolidating. Immediate support remains around 1.5728 followed the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red) and 1.5650. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white). On the upside, initial resistance which is also potential technical bullish target is seen around 1.5900 followed by 1.6000. Fundamental focus today will be on UK Current Account and US CB

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Daily Forecast: September 27

Filed in euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, Yen by on September 26, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 27

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3494 and closed at 1.3488 after break out above my minor bearish channel indicating potential further bullish scenario especially if price able to make another strong break out ab0ve 1.3500 targeting 1.3700. Note that 1.3500 could be an important and strong resistance area at this phase since it is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5140 – 1.1876 , so I think we need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish momentum. Another bearish pullback after testing 1.3500 area on Friday is normal and another minor bearish channel could be formed, but overall we are still in strong bullish bias unless price break below the major bullish channel (white). Immediate support at 1.3438 – 1.3400. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.3310 support area but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. Although there are many who maintain their negative outlook on global recovery progress which should create risk aversion and push the Euro down, price action shows that market still have positive bias after FOMC meeting and some good fundamental data lately. Trade the facts, not the opinions. GBPUSD Forecast As I had expected, the GBPUSD made strong bullish movement after break above 1.5728, topped at 1.5841 and closed at 1.5821. This fact opens the door for further bullish continuation targeting 1.6000 region especially if price make another strong break out above 1.5841. Immediate support at 1.5728 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario for now. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY was technically a mess on Friday. Price slipped above 84.82, topped at 85.38 but quickly whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 84.20. The way I see it, there are some forces in the market trying to go against the Japanese government acts to weaken the Yen and this is a very tricky situation. I will stand aside for now. Technically speaking, the bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 84.00 re-testing 82.87 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 84.82 to continue the bullish momentum testing 85.90 region and keep the upside outlook intact. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.9778 but the bearish momentum was limited as price closed higher at 0.9828 and keep moving higher around 0.9858 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a major bearish scenario testing at least 0.9730 support area. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9931. Break above that area and violation to the upside of the bearish channel could lead us to neutral medium outlook. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: September 23

Filed in euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, silver, Yen by on September 22, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 23

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3438 and closed at 1.3393 following a strong break out above the trend line resistance on Tuesday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.3500 area before testing 1.3700. Immediate support at 1.3333 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3267 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on some Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound. GBPUSD Forecast The Cable is the only major currency that fail to gain from broad Dollar weakness after FOMC meeting. On h1 chart below we can see price still able to move inside the minor bullish channel (red) indicates strong bullish view remains intact but we haven’t seen significant bullish momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5800 and 1.6000. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel and 1.5625. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.5586 but overall we are still in bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on UK BBA Mortgage Approvals and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday after break below 84.82, but found support around the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. A downside pullback testing the violated trend line often happen technically, but a movement back below the trend line could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario re-testing 82.87 as the rounding top bearish reversal scenario is now confirmed. However, like I said yesterday, any further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention and this could be a psychological support. On the upside, another move back above 84.82 should keep

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Daily Forecast: September 22

Filed in euro, Gold, lead, silver, Yen by on September 21, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 22

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after market react positively on FMOC statement. Although most part of the statement didn’t show significant change from the previous releases, the Fed willingness to “provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery” triggered risk appetite and push Euro higher. This positive reaction on global recovery could remain stay in the market at least in nearest future and give further support to the Euro. On daily chart below we can see price made a strong breakout above the trend line resistance indicating potential bullish continuation testing 1.3500 region especially if price able to make another break above 1.3333 (August 06 high). Immediate support at 1.3250/00 area. As long as price stay above that area, technical bias remains strongly bullish. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD also had a bullish momentum yesterday after FOMC statement triggered broad Dollar weakness. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel indicating potential bullish continuation, but still need a clear breakout above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.5800 even testing 1.6000 psychological level. Immediate support at 1.5586 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red). Break below that area could lead us to neutral area in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price still move inside the major bullish channel (white) we are still in bullish phase. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY had a significant bearish correction yesterday on broad Dollar weakness and now struggling around 84.82 support area. On h4 chart below we have a rounding top formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern especially if price able to break below 84.82 testing 84.00 area even lower. However note that any further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention by the Japanese government. On the upside, we still need a break above 85.90 to continue the bullish momentum testing 87.00. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9958. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving inside a new bearish channel (red) after violated the bullish channel indicating potential bearish pressure. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 0.9931 region targeting 0.9870 before testing 0.9730. Immediate resistance at 1.0030 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains bearish. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: September 17

Filed in euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead by on September 16, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 17

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday. As you can see on h4 chart below, we had a significant bullish momentum after price break above 1.3036, topped at 3116. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if we have another breakout above 1.3120 resistance area testing 1.3200 region. Immediate support at 1.3036. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2950/20 but overall we are still in bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on Germany PPI and Euro zone current account and US CPI and Consumer Sentiment. I believe that risk aversion/appetite sentiment will move the market during those data release. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5537 but again, closed higher at 1.5602. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but like I said yesterday, we need a break above 1.5650 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.5735 – 1.5800. Immediate support at 1.5531. Fundamental focus today will be on US CPI and Consumer Sentiment and it is likely that risk aversion/appetite sentiment will determine the direction during those data release. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if we have a clear break above 85.90 targeting 87.00 region. The strong breakout above the trend line resistance confirms my technical bullish reversal outlook. Immediate support at 84.82. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after break above 1.0060 and now struggling around 1.0160 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently above 1.0160 targeting 1.0277. Unless we have another movement back below 1.0060, I think we are still in strong bullish correction phase. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: September 16

Filed in euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead by on September 15, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 16

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. On h1 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below the bullish channel could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920/50 but any downside rebound now should not be a surprise since we haven’t seen bearish correction since last weekend. On the upside, break above 1.3036 (yesterday’s high) could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3120. Fundamental focus today will be on four US economic data. PPI, unemployment claims, TIC purchases and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Good numbers could trigger another risk appetite, push Euro higher while bad numbers could trigger risk aversion lead us to technical downside rebound. However the results could be mixed and produce another high volatile market. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5448 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.5650 and closed at 1.5634. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we need a break above 1.5650 to continue the bullish pressure towards 1.5700 before testing 1.5800 region. CCI just cross the 100 line down and now in neutral area on h1 chart indicating potential downside correction testing 1.5531 and the lower line of the bullish channel but overall we are still in bullish phase and only violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current short/medium term bullish outlook. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above the trend line resistance as you can see on my daily chart below, suggests potential bullish reversal scenario. The power behind the bullish momentum was the intervention. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 85.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 87.00. Immediate support at 84.82. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel indicates bullish correction/consolidation but the main scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.0060. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.0160. On the downside, my key level is at 0.9917 support area. I think we need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario. Have a great day!

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