Tag: the-downside

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Testing 1.2930, the bearish outlook is in serious threat

Filed in Gold, silver by on September 3, 2010 0 Comments
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Testing 1.2930, the bearish outlook is in serious threat

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Testing 1.2930, the bearish outlook is in serious threat The EUR/USD had a significant bullish correction this week. On h4 chart below we can see price break above my minor trend line resistance (yellow) to the upside indicating potential further bullish momentum testing the key resistance level 1.2930 area. Break above that area could be seen as potential bearish failure and bullish reversal in medium term testing the major trend line resistance (red) and 1.3115 area which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of 1.5140 – 1.1876. On the downside, only a violation to the downside on the bullish channel and bearish pullback below 1.2800 could stop the current strong bullish momentum and keep the medium term bearish outlook intact. Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

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Bear Flag for Oil

Filed in Gold, silver by on September 3, 2010 0 Comments
Bear Flag for Oil

My pattern work is warning me that all of the action in crude oil off of the Aug 25 low at $70.76 is a digestion period of the major downleg from the Aug 4 high at $82.97 to the Aug 25 low at $70.76. If that proves to be an accurate description of the price movement, then it should be labeled as a “Bear Flag” type of formation, which when complete will resolve itself to the downside with the initiation of a new downleg. The downleg should break both the Aug low ($70.76) and the longer-term support line from the Jan 2009 low, which cuts across the price axis around $71.15. Such a violation of support should trigger serious long liquidation in crude oil. ETF traders should be watching the US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO).

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EURUSD Weekly Summary: Two technical facts which may lead Euro to fall further

Filed in euro, Gold, lead, silver by on August 20, 2010 0 Comments
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Two technical facts which may lead Euro to fall further

EURUSD Weekly Summary: Two technical facts which may lead Euro to fall further The EUR/USD attempted to push higher this week, topped at 1.2921 after some positive fundamental data from the Euro zone and UK triggered short lived Dollar weakness but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2664 and closed at 1.2707. Here are the facts which may lead Euro to fall further: First, the major bullish channel has been broken to the downside, indicating potential bullish failure. Second, we have a “head and shoulders” formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern with 1.2700 as the neckline. If price able to move consistently below 1.2700 next week, the nearest bearish target will be around 1.2523 – 1.2470. Immediate resistance at 1.2930, which is at the right shoulder of the H&S formation. Have a great weekend and see you guys next week.

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EURUSD: Corrects Higher On Oversold Condition.

Filed in Gold Bullion prices by on June 9, 2010 0 Comments

EURUSD: The pair is presently building on a second day of recovery triggered as a result of an oversold condition following its recent weakness. The recovery eyes a move towards the 1.2111/42 levels, its May 18’10/Jun 01’10 lows where a reversal of roles is expected to turn EUR back down again. However, on a failure of that level, its Jun 01’10 high at 1.2353 level will be aimed at ahead of the 1.2451 level, its May 28’10 high. Alternatively, to annul its current recovery, a break and hold below the 18.75 level, the 2010 low must occur to create scope for more weakness towards its Jan’2006 low at 1.1801. A violation of there will open the door for further weakness towards its major support at 1.1640 established in 2005. All in all, though broadly biased to the downside medium term corrective recovery is now underway. Attached Images

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Daily Forecast : June 08

Filed in Gold, silver by on June 7, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast : June 08

EURUSD Forecast: The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price is now making a minor bullish channel (blue channel) indicating potential upside correction, which is normal after significant drop below 1.2000 area and the fact that price already in oversold area, but the main scenario remains to the downside. Immediate resistance at 1.2000 – 1.2050 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.2150 region. On the downside, we need a clear break below the minor bullish channel to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.1800 before targeting 1.1600 this week. GBPUSD Forecast: The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 1.4550 but closed lower at 1.4466. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the major bearish scenario testing 1.4240 area. Consistent move above 1.4550 could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.4600 – 1.4700 region. On the downside, we need a clear break below the trendline support and 1.4350 area, as you can see on my h4 chart below, to continue the bearish scenario. USDJPY Forecast: The USDJPY was technically a mess yesterday. Price slipped above 91.80 and now struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I will stay away for now. Consistent movement above 91.80 area could trigger further upside momentum testing 93.00 region. Immediate support at 90.50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 89.00 region. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF still trapped in the range area yesterday. The bullish pressure still unable to make significant upside momentum away from 1.1695 area. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the upside with 1.1750 as nearest technical target. On the downside, only a movement below 1.1445 area could be seen as a serious threat to the major bullish scenario. Have a great day!

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Gold Stocks vs. Gold Bullion | GOLD AND SILVER MARKET

Colin Whitehead, senior analyst with Fat Prophets, says gold stocks tend to overreact on the downside to market movements. He makes the case for why gold bullion is a safer investment with CNBC’s Oriel Morrison. …

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Video – CNBC

Filed in Australian Gold, Bank Gold, Gold by on May 12, 2010 0 Comments

Airtime: ET. Colin Whitehead, senior analyst with Fat Prophets, says gold stocks tend to overreact on the downside to market movements. He makes the case for why gold bullion is a safer investment with CNBC’s Oriel Morrison. …

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EUR-CHF analysis 30-4-2010 – Forex

Filed in Gold Holdings, Gold Investing by on April 30, 2010 0 Comments

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4329; (P) 1.4340; (R1) 1.4353; More No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook.Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment.On the downside, break of 1.4294 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to EUR-CHF analysis 30-4-2010 – Forex

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EURUSD: Attention Now On The 1.3280/66 Levels.

Filed in Gold, silver, ubs by on April 22, 2010 0 Comments

EURUSD: As downside pressure continues to mount on the pair, risk of a retest of the 1.3280 level, its April 08’10 low and the 1.3266 level, its 2010 low is likely. This is coming on the heels of a loss of momentum at the 1.3691 level, its April 12’10 low. We expect a cap at the 1.3280/66 zone, but if it snaps, lower prices should follow towards 1.3211 level and next its psycho level at 1.3000. Alternatively, the pair will have to trade above its April 12’10 high at 1.3691 to reverse its current weakness and bring further recovery towards its Mar 17’10 high at 1.3816 and subsequently its Feb 03’10 high at 1.4025. The latter should cap gains on an initial test and then turn the pair lower again. In a summary, with pressure on the downside remaining intact, EUR should head further lower towards the 1.3280/66 levels. Attached Images

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USD-CAD Mid-Day analysis 30-3-2010 – Forex

Filed in Gold Holdings by on March 30, 2010 0 Comments

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0167; (P) 1.0219; (R1) 1.0262; More.USD/CAD’s break of 1.0169 minor support suggests that recovery from 1.0062 has possibly completed at 1.0302 already.Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should now be USD-CAD Mid-Day analysis 30-3-2010 – Forex

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EUR-USD Mid-Day analysis 25-3-2010 – Forex

Filed in Gold Holdings by on March 25, 2010 0 Comments

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3248; (P) 1.3377; (R1) 1.3442; More.Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside with 1.3377 minor resistance intact.Current fall from 1.3817 is part of the whole medium term decline from 1.5143 and should now target 61.8% p EUR-USD Mid-Day analysis 25-3-2010 – Forex

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GBP-JPY Mid-Day analysis 22-3-2010 – Forex

Filed in Gold Holdings by on March 22, 2010 0 Comments

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.00; (P) 136.53; (R1) 137.46; More GBP/JPY drops further to as low as 134.53 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 132.13 low.As discussed before, choppy recovery from 132.13 should have completed at GBP-JPY Mid-Day analysis 22-3-2010 – Forex

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