Tag: Yen

Gold, oil & 44 Bars per Minute

Gold, oil & 44 Bars per Minute

“Girls love to spin.” — Wayne, Dance Instructor, Howard County Parks and Rec. I’m taking dance classes at the local Parks & Rec. with a stunning brunette, which is why I’m shuffling my feet around on Sunday nights at eight. The crowd is mixed; twenty-something hipster couples and old guys who have difficulty with their gig lines. The instructor is a cross between Wayne Newton and Telly Savalas: a black silk shirt, shaved head, and a nose like an organic potato. He sucks his microphone like a lollipop and spits out a steady stream of advice: “One, two, hook the toe, slide back, twirl…” Chick magnet The chicks love him, of course. And heck, I was even having a good time�— right up until Wayne Savalas swished over during the break. My H1 was in the parking lot. It’s shiny, yellow, and chews diesel like a Mongolian wrestler at a yak roast. Wayne obviously saw me pull up and feels he should enlighten me about his new Chevy Volt getting 60 miles per gallon… And why would I drive something that sucks up so much gas and destroys the environment? I told him that I was fully invested in oil explorers. And with the trouble in the Middle East launching my shares, I could drive a Semi for life… Brent Crude ETF (BNO) Yes, he said, but is this more of a trade on the Arab revolutions, or does it have more to do with the destruction of the dollar? Wayne pointed out that the dollar/euro has hit a four-month low and seems to be heading lower. Down she goes What is most concerning is that during this particular period of global uncertainty, the

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Bambuser blocked in Egypt (Live video site)

Filed in Gold Spot Market, o, Yen by on January 27, 2011 0 Comments

The Swedish live video streaming site Bambuser says its service has been blocked in Egypt. The site, which provides live video from mobile phones and webcams, says the interruption began Tuesday, shortly after the start of unprecedented nationwide demonstratons against the 30 year rule of President Hosni Mubarak. Måns Adler, who founded the site in 2007, tells AFP he is convinced the Egyptian government is behind the blockage. “The Internet provider is probably the one that can deny access to different websites and services,” he says, “but in this case we believe that the Egyptian government has asked the Internet providers to shut down a range of services.” The Swedish website is reportedly very popular in Egypt, where Egyptians use it to stream videos directly from their country. During the general elections there late last year, some 10,000 videos filmed in the country were posted on Bambuser It was earlier reported that the micro-blogging site Twitter has been blocked in Egypt. Social media were instrumental in the recent wave of protests in Tunisia.

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Just a Correction

Filed in commodities, Gold, Gold Prices, o, silver, target, ubs, Yen by on January 8, 2011 0 Comments
Just a Correction

We view the current sell off in a number of commodities as merely a correction not an end to the decade old bull market. The chart was ugly but I did think we would see $94/95 in Crude before this correction…I stand corrected. The fact that we closed below the 20 day MA we should see a probe at the 50 day MA; in February at $87.20. The trend line that has held for several months comes in at $85 so at worst we could see an additional $4-5 from today’s close…only my opinion. We will likely be looking at scaling into longs in March and April contracts on a trade $3 lower from here. On a 25-30 cent pullback in natural gas we would once again look at scaling into futures and purchasing 50 cent call spreads for clients. A sell off in early dealings was erased as the indices are slightly positive as of this post. We have positioned our more aggressive clients in bearish option positions in the ES thinking we are overdue for a correction; target in March futures is 1215-1225. We hinted at a few plays in forex yesterday (shorts in the Yen, Swissie and Loonie) which were all hit today. Much of the move came overnight especially in the Swissie so we opted to get short the Loonie. Some clients purchased put options with a target of .9800. Lean hogs and live cattle should continue trading lower. We welcome a break of the 20 day MA’s in coming sessions. About 1.5-2.0% lower in live cattle and we would look for an exit door on shorts. At a crossroads as tomorrow action will be critical in both gold and silver. Gold was hit 3% today closing at the 50 day MA. We expect there to be more downside, next target $1335. Silver lost 4.13% and was down over 5% intra-day. The low of the day tested the trend line that has held for

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Top Picks 2011: ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)

Filed in Bank Gold, currencies, Debt, o, shares, Yen by on January 4, 2011 0 Comments
Top Picks 2011: ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)

Filed under: International Markets , Newsletters , ETF Investing , Japan , Currency , Best Stocks for 2011 This post is one in a series in which more than 60 newsletter advisors share their Top Stock Picks for 2011 . This special report is courtesy of TheStockAdvisors.com . “Bloomberg recently reported that China has recorded two straight months of reducing its holdings of Japanese debt; t.his suggests that the Japanese yen has reached the point where it’s become too ‘strong’ for its own good — or at least for China’s taste,” says global stock specialist Keith Fitz-Gerald . The editor of The New China Trader explains, “Considering China has become the world’s de facto financier, we’d be wise to pay attention. Continue reading Top Picks 2011: ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Top Picks 2011: ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Jan 2011 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments

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Japan: The World’s Cheapest Market?

Filed in Bank Gold, o, Yen by on November 10, 2010 0 Comments

Filed under: International Markets , Newsletters , ETF Investing , Japan , Stocks to Buy “Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is the worst-performing index this year among the world’s 40 largest stock markets; however, Japan may now be the world’s cheapest stock market. ,” notes Dr. Steve Sjuggerud . The editor of Daily Wealth adds, “Indeed, I consider it a low-risk speculation with significant upside potential.” The strength in the yen — which recently hit a 15-year high — has made stocks in Japan ridiculously cheap. With the exception of the late 2008/early 2009 stock market bust, Japanese stocks are cheaper than they’ve ever been on a price-to-book basis, going back decades. Continue reading Japan: The World’s Cheapest Market? Japan: The World’s Cheapest Market? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Nov 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds . Permalink | Email this | Comments

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Weekend: Profit from the Foreclosure Fraud

Welcome to the Wealth Daily Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and links to our most-read Wealth Daily and sister publication articles. “All is well,” the White House once told us. We’re in a continued recovery that just “won’t feel terrific,” Bernanke explained. And now they tell us that foreclosure fraud shows no risk of systemic fallout. The Obama Administration can say they haven’t found fault with loans, but examples beg to differ. USA Today reported the story of a Wells Fargo employee from South Carolina who said she signed 300 to 500 foreclosure documents in a single day… That her only other responsibility “was to make sure her name and title were written correctly… Shown a foreclosure affidavit that she had signed in 2009, she said she did not know if the information was accurate. ‘My knowledge of this affidavit is very minimal,’ she said in the deposition.” Advertisement Most Important 500 Square Miles on Earth Becomes Private Property It was a stretch of barren landscape just a couple hundred miles away from the North Pole… But locked within it sat a 50-year supply of the most important class of industrial metals known to man. Earlier this year— for the first time ever — a single company took hold of this land… And altered the course of the world’s high-tech market forever. Learn more here. And there’s overwhelming “spin” that these are merely paperwork problems. The funny thing is that those claiming it’ll “work itself out” have no clue regarding the liabilities associated with this stuff. A Washington Post article explained: “If the basic principles of property law have been violated here… it may be extremely difficult to fix,” said a source involved in government oversight of financial institutions, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the uncertainties involved. “There is a chain of questions that no one seems to know the answer to.” Even the Financial Times tell us: This scandal is a mirror image of the lax and often improper lending practices that grew up in the years before the 2008 …

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Forex: Speculators trim Euro, Yen, Aussie long positions in Currency Futures

Filed in British Pound, currencies, euro, Gold, swiss franc, US Dollar, Yen by on October 18, 2010 0 Comments
Forex: Speculators trim Euro, Yen, Aussie long positions in Currency Futures

By CountingPips.com The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, showed that futures speculators slightly pared their bets in favor of the euro and the other major currencies against the US dollar. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators,were overall net short the US dollar by $29 billion against the other major currencies, down from a total short position of $30.5 billion on October 5th, according to data published by Reuters . Currency speculators were net long the euro against the U.S. dollar by 41,511 contracts as of October 12th. This is a decline of nearly 7,000 contracts following net long positions of 48,243 contracts on October 5th and breaks a string of five straight weeks of improving positions for the euro. The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. Open interest is the number of open contracts that have not been closed by a transaction or by delivery. The British pound sterling had been the last major currency on the short side against the dollar in the CME futures market but in early October the British currency positions …

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The Nixon Shock

The Nixon Shock

Have you looked at the market lately? The Dow is pushing 11,000. The S&P 500 has broken out above 1,150 and seems to be going to 1,220. Gold is at $1,346 per ounce, another all-time high. Silver is at prices not seen since the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market back in the 1970s. Oil is threatening to break out of its range… Aluminum, copper, tin, Molybdenum , nickel — all up! The price of cobalt has jumped from $24 to $40 per pound in the last three months. When pigs fly, pork bellies The prices of wheat, coffee, and pork bellies are going parabolic… “What’s going on?” you might ask. Could it be that investors are suddenly jazzed about tin, or think that hot dog sales will boom this Thanksgiving? No, of course not. The answer lies with our own happy Federal Reserve. Brian Sack, a senior official at the New York Fed, said this about quantitative easing in a recent speech: “Balance sheet policy can still lower longer-term borrowing costs for many households and businesses, and it adds to household wealth bykeeping asset prices higher than they otherwise would be.” Ponzi scheme In other words, the Fed is trying to prop up housing prices and the stock market (i.e. 401ks and other retirement plans) by keeping rates low, printing money, and destroying the value of the dollar. The fact that they admit this isn’t surprising… (It should be. I wish I was shocked, but I’m not.) The U.S. economy has been run like a giant Ponzi scheme since the Asian Currency Contagion of 1998. This was followed by a series of “crisis that will destroy the world economy”: Russian debt default, 9/11, Long Term Capital Management, dot-com bubble, housing collapse… Each one of these crises required the heroes at the Fed to step in and “save us” by printing money and creating the next bubble. This always reminds me of those Salvador Dali posters all the cool kids had in college: At some point, you have to pay the piper. Bills come due, and you can no longer prop up the empty corpse of the economy by adding another buttress. The flaming giraffe of debt will have his say. We wish, dear reader, that someone had the nerve to stand up in 1998 and let those who bet on LTCM take their lumps as a warning to the rest of the capitalist risk-takers. Make no mistake; the bailout of LTCM twelve years ago is directly responsible for the debt markets turning into a free-for-all five years ago. Heck, many of the same people were involved. And why not take risks? If the Fed can bail out Long Term Capital Management, they can bail out AIG. And Wall Street was correct in its assumption. Nothing has changed… No lesson has been learned. The currency war Right …

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FX Traders Watching EU Yields

Filed in currencies, Debt, euro, Gold, Quantitative Easing, swiss franc, Yen by on September 30, 2010 0 Comments
FX Traders Watching EU Yields

The EURUSD has stayed surprisingly resilient despite the negative news surrounding the Euro in the last 24 hours. Moody’s downgraded Spain to Aa1 with the outlook at stable which did not provide much of a reaction. EU Commission President Barroso & German Chancellor Merkel’s strongly worded comments yesterday are still ringing in our ears which suggested that there are still significant risks in the Eurozone. Today’s heightened CDS pricing and widened yield spreads confirm this (although we are seeing some relief today due to a canceled Irish auctions catching dealers short). “We will pull the handbrake before the car rolls down the hill” Barroso proclaimed. He then proceeded to outline sanctions for countries which failed to follow the EU’s rules on deficit and public debt. Under the new program and under the blanket of the Stability & Growth Pact, member nations whose deficit climb above 3.0% and public debt larger than 60% of GDP could be made to cough up an additional 0.2% of GDP in interest bearing deposits. He went on the say that this new plan was “the biggest step forward on economic governance since the Stability and Growth Pact was introduced.” The step toward greater economic coordination among member states clearly unnerved Germany. Merkel was quick to respond that the EU’s proposal should be an “automatic” alarm that a “depoliticized” process was needed. In addition, she called for a change in the EU’s treaty which includes the suspension of voting rights for certain states and reiterated that Germany would not support any extension of Eurozone safely measures. Today German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble asserted that Germany “needs a broader sanctions mechanism to get the moral hazard problem in the Eurozone under control.” With prospects of decent growth in the peripherals and concerns about political backtracking on austerity measures, we don’t see a smooth exit from the current situation; in fact we see the Eurozone crisis is sliding deeper, albeit slowly. Ireland’s Central Bank announced today the much anticipated solution surrounding Anglo Irish Bank – the bank is now state owned. A total of € 29.3 billion (bn) in state raised capital would be needed and an additional €5 bn may potentially be needed should economic conditions deteriorate further. In a politely worded statement, the Irish Finance Minister foretold that the holders of subordinate debt would have to make large contributions to the bailout – translated into American English, this simply means they are about to take on some heavy losses. In Australia, economic data came in softer than expected. Building approvals fell -4.7% m/m vs. 0.0 expected while private lending growth rose to a weak 0.1% vs. 0.3% expected. Given the recent moderation in economic data and current macro landscape, we suspect that the RBA will hold off on reinstating their hiking cycle until at least November. Despite the short lived sell off in AUDUSD, we suspect that safe haven investors will continue to value Australia’s strong fundamental & conservative fiscal position – this in turn will keep the currency supported. For the Greenback, concerns over the potential size…

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Forex: Speculators are long Euro positions for first time since December

Filed in British Pound, euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, swiss franc, US Dollar, Yen by on September 27, 2010 0 Comments
Forex: Speculators are long Euro positions for first time since December

By CountingPips.com The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, showed that futures speculators increased their bets for the euro against the dollar for a third consecutive week. Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net long the euro against the U.S. dollar by 5,097 contracts as of September 21st following net positioning of -9,644 contracts on September 14th. This is the first time contracts have been in positive territory for the euro since early December 2009 when net euro contracts were positive by 22,151. The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. Open interest is the number of open contracts that have not been closed by a transaction or by delivery. The British pound sterling was the only major currency on the short side against the dollar last week in the CME futures market while the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen , Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Mexican peso had a net positive amount of contracts. The British pound sterling short positions edged to -8,989 as of September 21st after being

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Daily Forecast: September 27

Filed in euro, Gold, Gold Bullion prices, lead, Yen by on September 26, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 27

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3494 and closed at 1.3488 after break out above my minor bearish channel indicating potential further bullish scenario especially if price able to make another strong break out ab0ve 1.3500 targeting 1.3700. Note that 1.3500 could be an important and strong resistance area at this phase since it is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5140 – 1.1876 , so I think we need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish momentum. Another bearish pullback after testing 1.3500 area on Friday is normal and another minor bearish channel could be formed, but overall we are still in strong bullish bias unless price break below the major bullish channel (white). Immediate support at 1.3438 – 1.3400. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.3310 support area but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. Although there are many who maintain their negative outlook on global recovery progress which should create risk aversion and push the Euro down, price action shows that market still have positive bias after FOMC meeting and some good fundamental data lately. Trade the facts, not the opinions. GBPUSD Forecast As I had expected, the GBPUSD made strong bullish movement after break above 1.5728, topped at 1.5841 and closed at 1.5821. This fact opens the door for further bullish continuation targeting 1.6000 region especially if price make another strong break out above 1.5841. Immediate support at 1.5728 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario for now. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY was technically a mess on Friday. Price slipped above 84.82, topped at 85.38 but quickly whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 84.20. The way I see it, there are some forces in the market trying to go against the Japanese government acts to weaken the Yen and this is a very tricky situation. I will stand aside for now. Technically speaking, the bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 84.00 re-testing 82.87 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 84.82 to continue the bullish momentum testing 85.90 region and keep the upside outlook intact. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.9778 but the bearish momentum was limited as price closed higher at 0.9828 and keep moving higher around 0.9858 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a major bearish scenario testing at least 0.9730 support area. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9931. Break above that area and violation to the upside of the bearish channel could lead us to neutral medium outlook. Have a great day!

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Daily Forecast: September 22

Filed in euro, Gold, lead, silver, Yen by on September 21, 2010 0 Comments
Daily Forecast: September 22

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after market react positively on FMOC statement. Although most part of the statement didn’t show significant change from the previous releases, the Fed willingness to “provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery” triggered risk appetite and push Euro higher. This positive reaction on global recovery could remain stay in the market at least in nearest future and give further support to the Euro. On daily chart below we can see price made a strong breakout above the trend line resistance indicating potential bullish continuation testing 1.3500 region especially if price able to make another break above 1.3333 (August 06 high). Immediate support at 1.3250/00 area. As long as price stay above that area, technical bias remains strongly bullish. GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD also had a bullish momentum yesterday after FOMC statement triggered broad Dollar weakness. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel indicating potential bullish continuation, but still need a clear breakout above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.5800 even testing 1.6000 psychological level. Immediate support at 1.5586 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red). Break below that area could lead us to neutral area in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price still move inside the major bullish channel (white) we are still in bullish phase. USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY had a significant bearish correction yesterday on broad Dollar weakness and now struggling around 84.82 support area. On h4 chart below we have a rounding top formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern especially if price able to break below 84.82 testing 84.00 area even lower. However note that any further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention by the Japanese government. On the upside, we still need a break above 85.90 to continue the bullish momentum testing 87.00. USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9958. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving inside a new bearish channel (red) after violated the bullish channel indicating potential bearish pressure. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 0.9931 region targeting 0.9870 before testing 0.9730. Immediate resistance at 1.0030 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains bearish. Have a great day!

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